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Mesoscale Discussion 777
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS AND
   OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 291748Z - 291945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO NEAR
   TCC...AND IN THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR BPC.  HAIL IS
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ACTIVITY...AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
   FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE THIS AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES A FEW ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS
   IN THE AREA...WITH A COUPLE OF AREAS OF INCREASING CUMULONIMBUS
   ELSEWHERE IN THE DISCUSSION AREA /PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE TEXAS
   PANHANDLE.  THIS CONVECTION MAY BE TIED TO A WEAK MIDLEVEL
   DISTURBANCE TRAVERSING THE AREA...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE
   THERMODYNAMICS FOR STRENGTHENING CONVECTION INCLUDING...

   1/ STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE REGION AND WEAKENING
   INHIBITION AND...
   2/ STRONG INSTABILITY ALOFT DUE TO 9-9.5C H7-H5 LAPSE RATES.

   ENVIRONMENTAL WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN THIS
   AREA...ALTHOUGH 50-60 KNOT UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
   VENTING ALOFT FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS.  GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN
   PLACE AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW- AND MID-LEVEL FLOW...HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY.  CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY
   EVENTUALLY BECOME UNDERCUT AS A COLD POOL CONTINUES TO ESTABLISH
   ITSELF IN THE AREA DUE TO EARLIER ELEVATED AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
   CONVECTION.

   MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THE INITIATION OF THIS CONVECTION
   PARTICULARLY WELL...ALTHOUGH OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THIS
   CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THE STEEPENING
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES INDICATED IN
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSES.  STORMS MAY CONGEAL WITH TIME AND MOVE SLOWLY
   NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  TRENDS ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WHICH MAY NECESSITATE
   A WW ISSUANCE.

   ..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/29/2016


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33460321 33560356 34030389 34760403 35420385 36000334
               36630277 36790213 36850142 36630093 36120060 35690064
               35090054 34180083 33830172 33460321 

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Page last modified: May 29, 2016
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