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Mesoscale Discussion 777
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0777
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0852 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN AR AND SOUTHERN MO TO NORTHWEST MS
   AND FAR WESTERN TN/KY

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 215...217...

   VALID 260152Z - 260315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 215...217...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN MO AND FAR
   SOUTHERN MO INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MO AND EVENTUALLY
   FAR WESTERN TN/NORTHWEST MS THROUGH LATE EVENING. TORNADO WATCHES
   215 AND 217 CONTINUE UNTIL 07Z. AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH COULD BE
   NEEDED THIS EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST MO/NORTHEAST AR AND ADJACENT AREAS
   OF THE NEARBY MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

   DISCUSSION...A BOWING SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AR/FAR SOUTHWEST MO AS OF 830 PM
   CDT...INCLUDING MULTIPLE NORTHWEST PERIPHERAL EMBEDDED COMMAHEAD
   CIRCULATIONS AND A MODERATELY STRONG REAR-INFLOW JET/POSSIBLE MCV
   PER FORT SMITH WSR-88D VWP DATA. EARLIER 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM
   LITTLE ROCK/SPRINGFIELD MO SAMPLED A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT...AND REGIONAL SURFACE/WSR-88 VWP DATA SUGGESTS THAT
   SQUALL-LINE PRECEDING CONVERGENCE HAS LIKELY INCREASED WITH
   MOIST/UNSTABLE NEAR-SURFACE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW VIA MODESTLY
   BACKING/STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM
   AGL. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE
   CAPABLE OF POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO RISK WITH EMBEDDED
   MESOVORTICES THROUGH LATE EVENING INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
   SOUTHERN MO/EASTERN AR AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NORTHWEST MS...WESTERN
   KY/TN...SOUTHERN IL.

   ..GUYER.. 05/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36409413 37219381 37869282 37959010 37628923 36828884
               35038941 33979043 33399195 33779276 34769240 35559269
               36149363 36409413 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2015
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