|Mesoscale Discussion 778|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0778
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1041 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017
Areas affected...Northwest/North-central TX...South-central OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 191541Z - 191715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms are expected this morning from
portions of northwest TX into south-central OK. Hail is the
greatest risk with this activity. WW may eventually be warranted
for this corridor.
DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection appears to be the primary
contributor in the generation/maintenance of deep convection across
northwest TX this morning. Over the last few hours, strong
thunderstorms have gradually developed/retreated into the Big
Country just west-north of ABI. Current trends suggest strong
storms will spread/develop northeast into portions of south-central
OK as LLJ begins to focus into this portion of the southern Plains.
Greatest buoyancy currently resides just south of this convection
and a gradual retreat into southeast OK is expected into the early
afternoon. Large hail currently accompanies the strongest updrafts
and this is the primary severe threat. WW may be warranted for this
corridor by early afternoon.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 32500087 34079846 34409704 33829658 32969773 32209977
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