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Mesoscale Discussion 778
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0778
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1041 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

   Areas affected...Northwest/North-central TX...South-central OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191541Z - 191715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms are expected this morning from
   portions of northwest TX into south-central OK.  Hail is the
   greatest risk with this activity.  WW may eventually be warranted
   for this corridor.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection appears to be the primary
   contributor in the generation/maintenance of deep convection across
   northwest TX this morning.  Over the last few hours, strong
   thunderstorms have gradually developed/retreated into the Big
   Country just west-north of ABI.  Current trends suggest strong
   storms will spread/develop northeast into portions of south-central
   OK as LLJ begins to focus into this portion of the southern Plains. 
   Greatest buoyancy currently resides just south of this convection
   and a gradual retreat into southeast OK is expected into the early
   afternoon.  Large hail currently accompanies the strongest updrafts
   and this is the primary severe threat.  WW may be warranted for this
   corridor by early afternoon.

   ..Darrow/Kerr.. 05/19/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32500087 34079846 34409704 33829658 32969773 32209977

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