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Mesoscale Discussion 778
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0778
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0342 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN NEB...NRN KS...WRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201...

   VALID 012042Z - 012145Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 201
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND/HAIL RISKS WILL PERSIST MAINLY WITHIN ERN/SRN
   PORTIONS OF WW 201. NWRN PORTION IS LIKELY SUFFICIENTLY STABILIZED
   WITH A NEGLIGIBLE RISK.

   DISCUSSION...COMPLEX/MESSY CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES SHOULD PERSIST
   AMIDST A LARGE-SCALE MCS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO CNTRL PLAINS. A
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL SHOULD EXIST ACROSS PORTION OF
   ERN NEB INTO WRN IA WHERE OVERTURNING HAS YET TO OCCUR AMIDST
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN
   THE MIDDLE 60S. HOWEVER...WEAKER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH ERN EXTENT
   /0-6 KM OF AROUND 20 KT IN OAX VWP DATA/ WILL TEMPER THE OVERALL
   AMPLITUDE OF THE SEVERE RISK COMPARED TO FARTHER SW.

   REGENERATIVE CLUSTERS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN PORTION OF
   WW 201 GIVEN INTENSE WAA ATOP THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WITH LOWER 90S
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR AND 60S WITHIN THE COLD
   POOL. HERE...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THE MORE
   ROBUST UPDRAFTS...BUT SEVERE WIND RISK COULD INCREASE WHERE FORWARD
   PROPAGATION IS FAVORED NEAR THE KS/NEB BORDER.

   ..GRAMS.. 06/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
   GLD...

   LAT...LON   40639926 41449742 43199648 43119486 40959541 39129711
               38989864 39179985 39749995 40639926 

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Page last modified: June 01, 2014
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