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Mesoscale Discussion 779
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0779
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1238 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southern IN...northern KY...and
   southern OH

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191738Z - 191945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...An increasing damaging wind threat with thunderstorms
   intensifying across southern IN may warrant watch issuance in the
   next several hours. Isolated large hail may also occur.

   DISCUSSION...A nearly stationary front extends across central IN/OH
   this afternoon. Diurnal heating along and south of the front has
   encouraged surface temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to lower
   80s, and MLCAPE has increased into the 1000-1500 J/kg range in the
   warm sector. A moist low-level airmass was sampled by the 12Z ILN
   sounding, although mid-level lapse rates were modest around 6.5 C/km
   in the 700-500 mb layer. Semi-discrete convection has recently
   strengthened across southern IN as outflow associated with prior
   overnight convection across MO/IL has encountered the unstable
   airmass south of the front. With 0-6 km shear vectors oriented
   nearly perpendicular to the strengthening convection, upscale growth
   into one or more bowing line segments seems likely over the next
   several hours. The damaging wind threat associated with this
   activity should likewise increase this afternoon with 30-40 kt of
   effective bulk shear present to support thunderstorm organization,
   and at least some damaging wind threat may continue into the early
   evening hours across parts of southern OH and northern KY per 14Z
   experimental HRRR. Isolated large hail may also occur for the next
   several hours if storms remain semi-discrete. Watch issuance is
   possible pending signs of greater convective organization.

   ..Gleason/Kerr.. 05/19/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37988298 37868597 37988647 38848695 39168697 39718658
               40138512 40128308 39988237 39548212 38948222 38458257

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