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Mesoscale Discussion 779
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0779
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0452 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 012152Z - 012245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS NE IA MAY STRENGTHEN WITH A RESULTANT
   INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT ACROSS CNTRL IA AS THE STORMS
   MOVE EWD/SEWD. SCENARIO IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN BUT TRENDS ACROSS THE
   REGION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

   DISCUSSION...LINE OF TSTMS MOVING THROUGH NE IA HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS
   OF ACCELERATING FORWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
   PREVIOUS CONVECTION. RECENT FORWARD SURGE IN CHEROKEE AND O'BRIEN
   COUNTIES WAS GENERALLY NEWD...PLACING THE STORM BEHIND THE OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WOODBURY AND MONONA COUNTIES HAS ALSO
   SURGED FORWARD WITH MORE INTERACTION WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   LIKELY. FAVORABLE INTERACTION WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL RESULT
   IN INCREASED UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND STORM ORGANIZATION WITH A
   RESULTANT INCREASE IN THE DAMAGING WIND AND SVR HAIL THREAT AS THE
   STORM CONTINUES EWD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
   SCENARIO...OWING PRIMARILY TO WEAK BULK SHEAR AND STORM ORGANIZATION
   CURRENTLY OBSERVED.

   ..MOSIER/HART.. 06/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   42869569 41649619 41269595 41139462 41509331 42229236
               42809251 43039281 43249380 42869569 

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Page last modified: June 01, 2014
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