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Mesoscale Discussion 780
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0524 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW NEB...NE CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 012224Z - 020000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS TRACK SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
   SRN NEB PANHANDLE INTO SW NEB/FAR NE CO THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS HAS ALLOWED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFF HIGHER
   TERRAIN TO ORGANIZE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE ACROSS THE SRN
   NEB PANHANDLE. DOWNSTREAM OF THESE STORMS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
   70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE
   PRESENT...AND DCAPE VALUES QUICKLY INCREASE TO OVER 1000 J/KG. A
   SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EJECTING ACROSS SRN/CNTRL WY IS ALSO EVIDENT IN
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
   FOR AT LEAST 1-3 HOURS AS THE LINE CONTINUES TO SURGE S/SEWD. AS
   CONVECTION MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...AND AS DIURNAL COOLING
   COMMENCES STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AND THE
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL DIMINISH. ADDITIONALLY...AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY EARLIER MOVED SOUTHWARD ACROSS SW NEB INTO NE CO. THE 20Z
   RAOB FROM LBF SHOWS THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW ABOUT 800 MB HAS
   BECOME MORE STABILIZED. THIS WILL FURTHER FAVOR STORMS BECOMING
   INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME. STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO MAY
   SUPPORT SOME INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH STRONGER
   UPDRAFTS.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 06/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42140369 41910404 41750417 41590428 40710403 40260351
               40080284 40040199 40260138 40820112 41420135 41880181
               42190214 42310259 42280316 42140369 

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Page last modified: June 02, 2014
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