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Mesoscale Discussion 780
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0780
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0124 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southern VA and western/central NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191824Z - 192030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated strong to locally damaging wind risk should
   persist through the afternoon, along with some marginally severe
   hail threat. Thunderstorms should remain mostly disorganized, and
   watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...18Z surface analysis depicts a trough extending from
   southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to scattered
   convection has developed along this surface trough and the higher
   terrain of western NC over the past several hours. Temperatures have
   generally warmed into the 80s as of 18Z with ample diurnal heating,
   and a moist low-level airmass characterized by surface dewpoints in
   the upper 60s to lower 70s is present across much of southern VA
   into western/central NC. Although poor to modest mid-level lapse
   rates exist across this region per 12Z soundings from RNK and GSO
   (generally 5.5-6.5 C/km in the 700-500 mb layer), strong heating has
   allowed MLCAPE to increase into the 1000-2000 J/kg range per 18Z RAP
   Mesoanalysis.

   However, both low and mid-level winds are expected to remain
   weak/modest through this evening, generally 25-30 kt or less. The
   lack of stronger winds through most of the troposphere should tend
   to limit updraft organization, and the overall severe risk should
   remain marginal with watch issuance unlikely at this time. Still,
   isolated/sporadic tree damage and marginally severe hail may occur
   with the strongest cells. Several recent runs of the operational
   HRRR have suggested some potential for a loosely organized cluster
   of storms to evolve eastward along the NC/VA border from the higher
   terrain of western NC. If this scenario were to become apparent in
   observational data, then watch probabilities may increase.

   ..Gleason/Kerr.. 05/19/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...GSP...

   LAT...LON   35678206 36628150 37018136 37637783 37627711 37287684
               36307702 35917928 35388104 35268190 35278243 35678206 

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Page last modified: May 19, 2017
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