MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0781
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0156 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NY THROUGH PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 280...
   
   VALID 091856Z - 092030Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 280
   CONTINUES.
   
   ERN PORTIONS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 280 MIGHT NEED TO BE
   REPLACED BY A TORNADO WATCH. OTHERWISE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
   WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   STORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS SWRN THROUGH
   NRN NY AS ZONE OF DEEP ASCENT ATTENDING A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVES EWD ABOVE A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. SURFACE
   ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE REMAINED BACKED TO A MORE SLY OR
   SSWLY DIRECTION OVER ERN NY WITHIN ZONE OF PRESSURE FALLS EAST OF
   SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER LAKE ERIE. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST
   TO SHIFT NEWD THROUGH ERN NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THIS WILL
   LIKELY INCREASE THE SIZE OF THE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. IN
   ADDITION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   FROM NRN NY INTO NRN VT WHICH COULD FURTHER AUGMENT TORNADO
   POTENTIAL WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT MOVES ALONG THIS FEATURE.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/09/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...
   
   LAT...LON   43377196 42407336 41827472 42617579 44747326 44517157
               43377196