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Mesoscale Discussion 781
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0781
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0213 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

   Areas affected...Northeast OK...Northwest AR...Southwest MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 191913Z - 192045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will gradually increase in intensity through
   late afternoon.  Isolated large hail, damaging winds, and some
   tornado threat can be expected.

   DISCUSSION...Leading edge of early-day MCS has progressed into
   northeast OK and diurnal influences appear to be aiding recent
   upward evolution of this activity from southern Mayes to Muskogee
   Counties.  Downstream, buoyancy has yet to increase appreciably
   across the Ozark Plateau due to overnight convective influences, but
   partial sunshine appears to be modifying this rain-cooled air mass. 
   Numerous showers have developed across the southern two thirds of AR
   depicting the southern edge of this more stable air mass.  Even so,
   LLJ should strengthen over the next few hours and further
   modification is expected across the Ozark Plateau.  For these
   reasons there is increasing confidence that convection across
   northeast OK will not weaken but continue in a linear north-south
   fashion as it propagates east.  Large hail and damaging winds are
   the greatest risk but isolated tornadoes can not be ruled out.

   ..Darrow/Kerr.. 05/19/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36859482 37589371 37519169 36359137 35669231 35189476

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