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Mesoscale Discussion 782
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0782
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0650 PM CDT SUN JUN 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS INTO NW MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 012350Z - 020115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS ARCING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SE NEB INTO
   CENTRAL KS WILL CONTINUE TRACK EWD THE NEXT FEW HOURS INTO ERN
   KS...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA BY 03Z.
   STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. A
   DOWNSTREAM WW AND/OR AERIAL EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED IF TRENDS
   CONTINUE.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARCING FROM SE NEB SWWD ACROSS
   CENTRAL INTO SW KS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING E/SE THIS EVENING. THIS
   BAND OF CONVECTION HAS SHOWN SIGNS OVER THE LAST HOUR OF BECOMING
   BETTER ORGANIZED OVER N-CNTRL KS WITH EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING REAR
   INFLOW JET PER UEX VWP. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH HI-RES MODEL
   GUIDANCE...WHICH DEVELOPS SEVERAL BOWING FEATURES TRACKING EWD
   ACROSS NE KS INTO NW MO THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS
   E/NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR DECREASES
   WITH EWD EXTENT...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ARE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN THE QLCS. DAMAGING
   WINDS INITIALLY WILL BE THE GREATEST THREAT. AFTER 05-06Z...BOUNDARY
   LAYER STABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN CONVECTION BECOMING MORE
   ELEVATED WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A
   DOWNSTREAM WW/LOCAL AERIAL EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2
   HOURS IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 06/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39799647 40129599 40169534 40089476 39789421 39249412
               38339456 37859543 37709599 37719659 37829700 38179714
               38979690 39379669 39799647 

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Page last modified: June 02, 2014
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