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Mesoscale Discussion 783
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0783
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1122 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL/ERN WI/PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPPER MI AND
   INTO NRN AND WRN LOWER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 261622Z - 261815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO VERY GRADUALLY INCREASE
   ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON -- INCLUDING RISK FOR
   ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES.  WW MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE
   EXPANSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION -- MAINLY
   OVER NRN WI AND INTO PORTIONS OF UPPER MI...AS WELL AS OVER MUCH OF
   LOWER MI ATTM.  SOME HEATING THROUGH THE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAS
   RESULTED IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION...WITH UP TO 500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER
   CAPE NOW INDICATED IN THE MOST CLOUD-FREE AREAS.

   AS A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX CENTERED CROSSING THE NRN MO/SRN IA VICINITY
   CONTINUES SHIFTING...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD
   THIS AREA.  A BAND OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS SPREADING
   NEWD ACROSS SRN WI/NRN AND ERN IL ATTM...WITH A STRONGER STORM OR
   TWO ALSO INDICATED AHEAD OF THIS BAND OVER S CENTRAL WI.  WITH
   VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT AHEAD OF THE BAND SUFFICIENT FOR
   UPDRAFT ROTATION /AND A FEW CELLS EXHIBITING VERY WEAK ROTATION PER
   WSR-88D SRV/...EXPECT SEVERE/BRIEF TORNADO RISK TO
   GRADUALLY/MODESTLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS
   EXPAND/OVERSPREAD THE DISCUSSION AREA.  WHILE WW IS NOT
   IMMINENT...WE WILL MONITOR HEATING/DESTABILIZATION /AND ANY
   ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/ ACROSS THE AREA WHICH
   COULD EVENTUALLY WARRANT WW CONSIDERATION.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DVN...
   ARX...

   LAT...LON   44409006 45628916 46458787 45918442 44478305 43728397
               42378629 41118865 42068927 42859013 44409006 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2015
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