MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0783
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0330 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL NC THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281...
   
   VALID 092030Z - 092200Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 281
   CONTINUES.
   
   THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL PERSIST NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS AS STORMS DEVELOP EWD THROUGH CNTRL NC. SEVERE THREAT FARTHER
   NORTH ACROSS VA HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN AND CONDITIONAL UPON
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
   
   CLUSTER OF STORMS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE EXHIBITED UPDRAFT ROTATION
   ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD THROUGH CNTRL NC WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE
   REMAINS WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE. ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
   WITHIN ZONE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN TN/WRN NC. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS VA...NEW
   STORMS HAVE FAILED TO INITIATE POSSIBLY DUE TO STRONGER DOWNSLOPING
   EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP WLY FLOW. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY
   INDICATES SOME BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS BETWEEN BREAKS IN MID AND HIGH
   LEVEL CLOUDS...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEXT COUPLE HOURS CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT. UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WOULD
   SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH STORM SPLITS...BUT THREAT IN VA REMAINS
   CONDITIONAL.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/09/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...
   
   LAT...LON   37927652 35587912 35007986 35368145 36128088 38147812
               37927652