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Mesoscale Discussion 784
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0784
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1224 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES/MID OH VALLEY VICINITY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 261724Z - 261930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL
   CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE
   MIDWEST.  WW MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS BROKEN CLOUD COVER FROM
   SRN LOWER MI SWD ACROSS OH AND PORTIONS OF INDIANA INTO KY.  GIVEN
   THE RELATIVELY MOIST /MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ BOUNDARY LAYER IN
   PLACE...HEATING THROUGH THE CLOUD BREAKS IS ALLOWING THE AIRMASS TO
   GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE...WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE NOW
   INDICATED DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT.

   AS THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   REGION...A BROAD BELT OF ENHANCED /AROUND 50 KT/ MID LEVEL SSWLYS
   ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION.  WHILE FLOW IS RELATIVELY
   UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT...SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
   UPDRAFTS.  THUS -- EXPECT SOME RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
   POSSIBLY MARGINAL HAIL TO EVOLVE AS STORMS INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH CONTINUED AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION.  RISK MAY
   WARRANT WW ISSUANCE WITH IN THE NEXT HOUR.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...
   LOT...

   LAT...LON   42438590 42408478 41998423 41258369 39998349 38468340
               37958609 38168648 41328734 41938673 42438590 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2015
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