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Mesoscale Discussion 784
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0784
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0328 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

   Areas affected...South-central KS...Northern OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 192028Z - 192200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe threat is increasing across south-central KS and
   extreme northern OK.  Hail is the primary threat, though an isolated
   tornado can not be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...A narrow corridor of modest boundary-layer heating has
   developed from western OK into extreme south-central KS, per
   surface-3km lapse rates on the order of 7 C/km.  With minimal CINH
   observed across this portion of KS/OK convection is expected to
   gradually increase with continued heating, albeit modest due to
   extensive cloud cover.  Over the last hour or so thunderstorms have
   gradually increased across southwest KS along the cold front.  This
   activity is expected to shift east into an air mass characterized by
   dew points in the mid 60s with mid 70s temperatures.  While
   low-level shear is currently weak, deep-layer shear is more than
   adequate for sustained rotating updrafts and a few supercells could
   evolve across this region.  Backed low-level flow may contribute to
   the tornado potential, though hail is the primary risk.

   ..Darrow/Kerr.. 05/19/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36969828 37939804 38479671 38009586 37189582 36609751

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