MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0784
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0458 PM CDT SAT MAY 09 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN NC AND VA...THRU THE DELMARVA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 092158Z - 092300Z
   
   AN ADDITIONAL WW WILL BE ISSUED EAST OF WW 281 SHORTLY.
   
   SMALL STORM CLUSTER CONTINUES TO EVOLVE OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
   PIEDMONT...AIDED BY FORCING/ENHANCED SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 50 KT
   WEST SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB SPEED MAXIMUM NOSING TO THE LEE OF THE
   SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  STRONGER DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD IS
   EXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH
   CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN NOW AND 01-02Z.  ALTHOUGH THE
   WESTERLY COMPONENT TO SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
   INTO COASTAL AREAS IS NOT IDEAL...30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 FLOW IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO AN EASTERLY STORM RELATIVE INFLOW COMPONENT
   SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEAD EDGE OF THE
   STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL.  WITH WEAK FRONT TO REAR HIGH LEVEL
   SYSTEM RELATIVE FLOW ALLOWING ANVIL CLOUD COVER/ PRECIPITATION TO
   SPREAD TO THE REAR OF THE CONVECTIVE SATEM...AND AND A HEATED
   BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SIZABLE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS AHEAD OF
   IT...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE TO SUSTAIN OR INCREASE THE
   STRENGTH OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THROUGH EARLY EVENING. 
   POTENTIALLY DAMAGING PEAK GUSTS WILL PROBABLY AT LEAST APPROACH 50
   KT ALONG A SWATH TOWARD NORFOLK VA/ELIZABETH CITY NC AREA.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/09/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...
   
   LAT...LON   36707891 37747755 39187561 38107519 35837637 35717682
               35247818 35427898 35547950 36177888 36707891