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Mesoscale Discussion 785
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0785
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0135 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST OK INTO W-CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 261835Z - 262000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SWRN
   OK SWD INTO W-CNTRL TX. LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND A
   TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR WATCH
   ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A LOOSELY CONVERGENT DRYLINE
   FROM JUST E OF LBB SWD TO JUST W OF 6R6...WITH GENERALLY VEERING SFC
   WINDS TO THE E OF THE DRYLINE OCCURRING. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
   ADVECTING NWD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
   DEWPOINTS APPROACHING I-20 ACROSS W-CNTRL TX...AND LOW 60S INTO SWRN
   OK. WITH STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PRESENT...VERY LARGE MLCAPE
   VALUES ARE NOW BEING OBSERVED /2500-4000 J/KG/...BUT WEAK CAPPING IS
   LIKELY STILL PRESENT. 

   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GRADUAL ENHANCEMENT OF CU GENERALLY
   E OF THE DRYLINE ALONG A WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE FROM NEAR LTS TO ABI.
   A LONE STORM /LIKELY ELEVATED/ WAS GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING ACROSS
   SWRN OK. MOST CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...WITH THE
   ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL IS
   LIKELY TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN THE EXCEPTIONAL THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...BUT A TORNADO RISK COULD ACCOMPANY
   LONGER-LIVED CELLULAR STORMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED
   FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   35579882 35019744 34079723 33749821 32139888 31279998
               31070075 31540129 32580147 33100080 33720000 34509964
               35159967 35509945 35579882 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2015
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