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Mesoscale Discussion 785
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0785
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0143 AM CDT MON JUN 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 020643Z - 020815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY POSE
   A LARGE HAIL RISK OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
   CO INCLUDING THE I-70 VICINITY.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS HAVE STEADILY
   DEVELOP/INCREASED OVER THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES /SINCE 545Z/ IN AREAS
   JUST EAST OF THE MAIN URBAN/I-25 CORRIDOR OF EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
   CO. UNDER RELATIVELY MODEST LARGE-SCALE INFLUENCES...THE STORMS
   APPEAR TO BE AIDED BY INCREASING POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE TRAJECTORIES
   AND AN ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SURGE NEAR/JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. A
   RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS IS LIKELY SUPPORTING AS MUCH AS 1000 J/KG
   OF MUCAPE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL CO. UNDER THE INFLUENCE
   OF 35-45 KT MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES...WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM
   DENVER/PUEBLO ARE INDICATIVE OF STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WHICH
   ARE LIKELY RESULTING IN AS MUCH AS 50+ KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
   THIS SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WHAT
   SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38660452 39850445 40490323 39760201 38010258 38660452 

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Page last modified: June 02, 2014
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