MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0786
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1141 AM CDT MON MAY 05 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND ERN SC...SRN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 051641Z - 051745Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND A WW IS LIKELY.
   
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THE SC
   COAST...JUST S OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH WAS DRAPED OVER NRN
   SC/SRN NC. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED AN EXPANDING CU FIELD OVER CNTRL
   SC WHERE NO CAPPING REMAINS...WHILE AREAS TO THE N WERE SLOWER TO
   WARM DUE TO HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT.
   
   MORNING SOUNDING OUT OF CHS SHOWED A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY
   LAYER...AND WHEN MODIFIED FOR 16Z CONDITIONS YIELDS NOT ONLY
   MODERATE INSTABILITY...BUT ALSO DCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG. MUCH
   COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT EXIST WITH NWD EXTENT WITH A TIGHT MID
   LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT IN PLACE. THUS...WHILE CHS SOUNDING DOES SHOW
   COOL ENOUGH PROFILES FOR HAIL EVEN GIVEN MID 50S DEWPOINT...A
   GREATER HAIL THREAT LIKELY EXISTS OVER NRN SC AND SRN NC...WHERE
   COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS EXISTS.
   
   STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN CONVERGE...WITH THE PRIMARY
   FOCUS ALONG THE WEAK FRONT OVER NRN SC/SRN NC. STORMS THAT FORM HERE
   WILL MOVE PRIMARILY IN A SEWD DIRECTION. DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS ARE
   SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/LONG LIVED CONVECTION...AND POSSIBLY EVEN
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL PERHAPS UP TO 1.50-2.00 IN
   DIAMETER. STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY ALSO SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND THREAT COULD
   DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY ONCE STORMS HAVE A CHANCE TO
   BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/05/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
   
   32637992 34078149 34658186 35128141 35328058 35297988
   34887884 34267766 33757794 33797859 33317910 33087914
   32837945