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Mesoscale Discussion 786
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0786
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0102 PM CDT MON JUN 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL LOWER MICHIGAN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 021802Z - 022000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONSOLIDATING/INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HOUGHTON LAKE AREA...TOWARD
   THE LAKE HURON COAST...BY THE 20-21Z TIME FRAME.  ALTHOUGH THE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS MARGINAL...STORMS MAY BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS AT LEAST APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS.

   DISCUSSION...WITHIN BROADER SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGHING PROGRESSING
   INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A SMALLER SCALE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO
   MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN AND THE LAKE
   MICHIGAN REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY A SOUTHERLY 40-50 KT 500 MB JET
   STREAK.  ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION APPEARS
   LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
   BETWEEN NOW AND 20-21Z...PERHAPS CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONSOLIDATION
   OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
   WEAK TO MODEST CAPE /500 TO 1000 J PER KG/.  THIS SEEMS MOST LIKELY
   TO OCCUR ALONG A CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOL/LAKE BREEZE FRONT
   ADVANCING INLAND OFF LAKE MICHIGAN.

   ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG A
   40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET COULD CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE
   ORGANIZATION IN THE PRESENCE OF 40 KT MEAN LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
   FLOW.  AIDED BY HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING...AND PERHAPS SOME
   FURTHER STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE
   HEATING...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE GUSTS AT LEAST
   APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...
   PARTICULARLY NEAR/NORTH AND EAST OF THE HOUGHTON LAKE AREA.

   ..KERR/CARBIN.. 06/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   44798589 45598510 45488420 44898316 43698406 43098504
               43258593 43588614 44798589 

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Page last modified: June 02, 2014
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