MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0787
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0107 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM AND SW/W TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 
   
   VALID 051807Z - 051900Z
   
   TSTMS WITH SVR HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO
   EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE SRN HI PLNS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT; WW
   POSSIBLE. 
   
   IN THE LAST TWO HOURS...TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF SE NM.  THESE STORMS ARE FORMING ON WRN EDGE RICH LOW-LVL
   MOISTURE SPREADING NNW ACROSS THE SRN HI PLNS AHEAD OF UPR LOW NOW
   APPROACHING THE NRN CST OF BAJA CA.  SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF
   SHALLOW HIGH-LVL CONVECTIVE CIRRUS NOW MOVING NEWD INTO ERN NM. 
   THIS ACTIVITY MAY MARK AN AREA OF UPR LVL DIVERGENCE
   ...MOISTURE...AND ASCENT WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW THAT COULD FOSTER
   FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY...BOTH SWD INTO FAR W
   TX AND N TOWARD NE NM. 
   
   15-20 KT SSELY LOW-LVL FLOW WILL OVERLAY MODERATE /30-35 KT/ SW TO
   WSWLY MID-LVL WINDS ON FAR ERN PERIPHERY OF BAJA LOW.  THIS WILL
   YIELD 40+ KT DEEP WSWLY SHEAR.  COUPLED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW...
   INCREASING MOISTURE...CONTINUED SFC HEATING...AND ABSENCE OF STRONG
   LINEAR FORCING FOR ASCENT...SETUP COULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD
   SUPERCELLS.  THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND
   AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY ENEWD IN
   A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED BAND THROUGH MID EVENING.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 05/05/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
   
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