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Mesoscale Discussion 787
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0787
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0505 PM CDT MON JUN 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL OK INTO S-CNTRL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 022205Z - 022330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO
   EARLY EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
   STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOCALIZED AND BE
   SHORT LIVED...AND A WW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA INDICATED A
   FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS N-CNTRL OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A
   RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO S-CNTRL KS. WEAK
   FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LACKLUSTER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO
   MIDLEVEL WARMING SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL STRENGTH/LONGEVITY OF ANY
   STORMS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
   JUXTAPOSED WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 50 KT EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
   EARLY EVENING. STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP. THE
   THREAT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE IN COVERAGE AND TIME SO THAT A WW
   IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 06/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   36169739 36419830 36759864 37229869 37429826 37269717
               36979652 36499637 36149661 36169739 

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Page last modified: June 02, 2014
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