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Mesoscale Discussion 787
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0787
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0354 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 262054Z - 262200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
   MAY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND
   WEST-CENTRAL TX. A WW IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD AREA OF
   BOUNDARY-LAYER CU ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TX EAST OF A
   DRYLINE POSITIONED FROM NEAR 6R6 TO E OF MAF. A STRONG STORM
   ORIGINATING FROM A LEFT SPLIT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN MEXICO
   IS MOVING NWD ACROSS TERRELL COUNTY...WHILE CINH AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE IS LIMITING ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NWD THUS
   FAR. HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR TWO ADDITIONAL TSTMS
   REMAINS POSSIBLE...WITH COVERAGE LIKELY TO REMAIN LIMITED OWING TO
   MARGINAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDITIONALLY
   FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RICH
   SFC MOISTURE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED AT 2000-4000 J/KG. LARGE
   SFC T-TD SPREADS AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE TORNADO
   THREAT. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   ..ROGERS/MEAD.. 05/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29790254 31210210 32000140 32040055 31810000 30750025
               29250086 29560124 29750162 29760215 29790254 

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Page last modified: May 26, 2015
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