MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0210 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW KS...NW OK AND ERN PARTS OF THE OK AND TX
   PANHANDLES
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 051910Z - 052045Z
   
   TSTMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO FORM LATER THIS AFTN THROUGH
   THIS EVENING IN SW KS/NW OK AND ERN PARTS OF THE OK AND TX
   PANHANDLES.  WW POSSIBLE.
   
   TCU HAVE BEEN FORMING IN SW KS DURING THE LAST 1-2 HRS...ALONG AND
   SW OF STALLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY EARLY MORNING STORMS IN THE
   W CNTRL PART OF THE STATE.  DEEP CONVECTION IS ALSO STARTING TO
   DEVELOP ALONG THE RATON DIVIDE...FROM EXTREME NE NM INTO THE SE
   CORNER OF CO.
   
   THE LATEST SFC DATA SHOW A TONGUE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE WITH SFC
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPR 50S F SPREADING NNW INTO THE ERN PART OF
   THE TX PANHANDLE...ALONG AND JUST W OF WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM
   NEAR CDS TO E OF AMA.  MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER ERN
   PORTIONS OF THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES AND SW KS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
   COUPLED WITH CONTINUED SFC HEATING...EXPECT SBCAPE TO RISE TO AOA
   1000 J/KG.
   
   UPR LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...BUT SHOULD INCREASE THIS
   EVENING AS WEAK DISTURBANCE NOW OVER NM CONTINUES NEWD.  COMBINATION
   OF STRENGTHENING UVV AND DESTABILIZATION SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO HOURS.  GIVEN
   35-40 KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR...SETUP COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS  
   WITH HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.  THE STORMS
   SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR TWO THIS
   EVENING...WITH A CONTINUING THREAT FOR SVR.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 05/05/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
   
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