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Mesoscale Discussion 788
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0788
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN/NORTHERN NEB AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 030802Z - 031000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...DEVELOPING STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL
   OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL NEB...AND
   EVENTUALLY ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN/SOUTHERN SD THROUGH THE
   EARLY MORNING HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG TSTMS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS WEST/NORTHWEST NEB
   SINCE AROUND 07Z. AIDED BY AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET
   /35+ KT PER THE WSR-88D VWP FROM GOODLAND KS/...THESE ELEVATED
   STORMS APPEAR TO OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASING
   WARM/MOISTURE ADVECTION REGIME NEAR AN 850 MB WARM FRONT. WHILE
   ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS INITIALLY MODEST /REFERENCE THE 00Z NORTH
   PLATTE OBSERVED SOUNDING/...VARIOUS SHORT-TERM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SHOW A STEADY INCREASE IN ELEVATED INSTABILITY /1500+ J PER KG
   MUCAPE/ OWING TO A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR/ABOVE THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF
   SOME ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL. THE PRIMARY
   SHORT-TERM HAIL RISK...ALBEIT LIKELY MARGINAL...WILL BE MAINLY
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL NEB.

   ADDITIONALLY...AS AFOREMENTIONED DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES TO OCCUR
   THROUGH DAYBREAK...VARIOUS CONVECTION-ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE
   00Z AFWA...00Z NSSL-WRF...AND RECENT HRRR OUTPUT INDICATE THAT
   STRONG STORMS COULD ALSO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL SD
   BY AROUND SUNRISE OR SOON THEREAFTER. WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
   ASCENT ASIDE...THIS SCENARIO APPEARS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN SOME EXPECTED
   ABATEMENT OF CURRENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING VIA THE APPROACH OF THE
   UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL
   ROCKIES. LOOKING AHEAD...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SCENARIO COULD
   POSE A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL ACROSS
   SD BY THE EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   43270337 44030346 44110078 43059918 42069922 41460008
               41680158 42430281 43270337 

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Page last modified: June 03, 2014
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