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Mesoscale Discussion 789
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0789
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0645 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

   Areas affected...South-central KS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 250...

   Valid 192345Z - 200045Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 250 continues.

   SUMMARY...Some isolated damaging wind gusts and/or a brief tornado
   are possible for the next hour or so but a gradually diminishing
   threat is anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Recent KICT radar imagery suggests the cells within the
   line moving across central KS have become more outflow-dominant.
   This more outflow-dominant storm structure and continued linear
   forcing for ascent provided by the cold front suggest persistence of
   the currently observed linear mode. Downstream kinematic environment
   is still favorable for low-level rotation given veering wind profile
   characterized by southeasterly surface winds around 15 kt and
   mid-level flow from the southwest at 50 kt. Recent ICT VAD data
   estimates the 0-1 km SRH is over 150 m2/s2. However, the
   thermodynamic environment is less favorable as drier air has moved
   in from the east, dropping dewpoints into the mid 60s. Recent
   mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE of less than 1000 J/kg downstream of
   the ongoing cluster. Overall, some threat for damaging wind gusts
   and a brief tornado still exists but the linear storm mode and
   increasingly hostile downstream thermodynamic environment suggest a
   gradually diminishing threat.

   ..Mosier.. 05/19/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36779852 38349850 38569616 36969618 36779852 

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