|Mesoscale Discussion 789|
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Mesoscale Discussion 0789
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017
Areas affected...South-central KS
Concerning...Tornado Watch 250...
Valid 192345Z - 200045Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 250 continues.
SUMMARY...Some isolated damaging wind gusts and/or a brief tornado
are possible for the next hour or so but a gradually diminishing
threat is anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Recent KICT radar imagery suggests the cells within the
line moving across central KS have become more outflow-dominant.
This more outflow-dominant storm structure and continued linear
forcing for ascent provided by the cold front suggest persistence of
the currently observed linear mode. Downstream kinematic environment
is still favorable for low-level rotation given veering wind profile
characterized by southeasterly surface winds around 15 kt and
mid-level flow from the southwest at 50 kt. Recent ICT VAD data
estimates the 0-1 km SRH is over 150 m2/s2. However, the
thermodynamic environment is less favorable as drier air has moved
in from the east, dropping dewpoints into the mid 60s. Recent
mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE of less than 1000 J/kg downstream of
the ongoing cluster. Overall, some threat for damaging wind gusts
and a brief tornado still exists but the linear storm mode and
increasingly hostile downstream thermodynamic environment suggest a
gradually diminishing threat.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 36779852 38349850 38569616 36969618 36779852
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