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Mesoscale Discussion 789
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0789
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0700 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL NEB AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 031200Z - 031400Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
   EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/EAST-CENTRAL NEB
   AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN SD. WHILE THE OVERALL RISK MAY REMAIN MARGINAL
   IN THE SHORT-TERM...APPRECIABLY INCREASING INTENSITY TRENDS COULD
   PROMPT A SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE LATER THIS MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...PERSISTENTLY STRONG TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEB AND
   SOUTHWEST/FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL SD. ALTHOUGH SOME DEGREE OF SHORTWAVE
   RIDGING STILL EXISTS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...THESE STORMS ARE
   BEING AIDED BY A MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WITH
   WARM/MOIST ADVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A SURFACE FRONT. IN THE
   PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...CONSEQUENTIAL MOISTENING
   ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LIKELY CONTINUED TO STEADILY INCREASE
   ELEVATED BUOYANCY SINCE LATE EVENING...WITH POTENTIALLY AS MUCH AS
   1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ESTIMATED AS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT 12Z
   OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM NORTH PLATTE. MORE THAN ADEQUATE VERTICAL
   SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME
   ELEVATED SUPERCELLS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL. THIS SHOULD
   PRIMARILY BE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL NEB EARLY THIS
   MORNING...BUT THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT STORMS MAY ALSO STEADILY
   INTENSIFY ACROSS SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL SD THROUGH MID-MORNING.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 06/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44410339 43910058 42169805 40919866 43070169 43500339
               44410339 

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Page last modified: June 03, 2014
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