Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 790
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 790 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0790
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1110 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF OH...WRN PA...SWRN NY...NRN WV...NRN
   KY...SERN INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 031610Z - 031845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW MARGINALLY SVR THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE ISSUANCE OF A
   WW IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE
   PRE-FRONTAL CU BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED WITHIN A BROAD AREA
   FROM THE OHIO RIVER VICINITY NWD TO LAKE ERIE. THE FRONT IS ANALYZED
   FROM N OF TERRE HAUTE AND INDIANAPOLIS TO THE W SIDE OF CLEVELAND
   AND NEWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO. LIGHTNING HAS ALREADY BEEN DETECTED
   ALONG THE LAKESHORE E OF CLEVELAND. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION OWING TO CONTINUED
   DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST A WEAKLY CAPPED...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.  WEAK
   ASCENT ALONG AND PRECEDING THE FRONT BENEATH A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
   PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

   HOWEVER...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S...MLCAPE VALUES
   OF 500-1500 J/KG ARE ALREADY NOTED PER MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z
   WILMINGTON OHIO RAOB THAT FEATURES STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES...AND
   SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN MLCAPE IS ANTICIPATED. THIS BUOYANCY
   WILL LIKELY SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...WITH SOME
   CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION PROVIDED BY 25-40 KT OF FLOW SAMPLED BETWEEN
   2.5 AND 4 KM AGL PER AREA VWPS. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FEW SPORADIC
   INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL...WITH THE ERN EXTENT OF SUCH
   RISK BOUNDED BY THE WRN FRINGES OF A MERIDIONALLY
   ORIENTED...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD BAND OVER THE APPALACHIANS.

   ..COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...
   IND...

   LAT...LON   38438450 38718566 39398557 40128442 40718311 41908073
               42577917 43217830 43247766 42897725 41717794 40307932
               38718221 38438450 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 03, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities