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Mesoscale Discussion 791
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0791
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1159 AM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 031659Z - 031930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW MARGINALLY SVR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ON THE ERN FRINGES
   OF A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD BAND THAT EXTENDS
   FROM CNTRL NY SWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. MIDDLE 60S SFC DEWPOINTS IN
   PLACE ACROSS THE REGION COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF INSOLATION ARE
   SUPPORTING MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. MEANWHILE...VISIBLE
   SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE CONVECTION DEEPENING ACROSS THE
   AREA -- LIKELY AIDED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE EDGES OF THE
   CLOUD BAND AND TERRAIN-DRIVEN ASCENT. A CONTINUED UPTICK IN
   CONVECTION WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE AN UPPER
   TROUGH GLANCES THE AREA WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS OVERLYING THE
   REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. THE PRESENCE OF 20-40 KT OF 1-6-KM-AGL
   FLOW PER THE 12Z BUF RAOB AND THE CXX VWP SUGGEST THAT A FEW
   ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS COULD OCCUR WITH LOCALIZED DMGG WIND
   GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. THE STRONGEST OF THIS
   ACTIVITY IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE ADIRONDACKS TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC
   BORDER WHERE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN THE FASTEST.
   HOWEVER...RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED
   WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL SVR RISK
   RATHER LIMITED.

   ..COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   44927337 43517362 42507396 42157454 42247546 43237568
               44657545 44997498 44927337 

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Page last modified: June 03, 2014
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