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Mesoscale Discussion 792
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0792
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0633 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 262333Z - 270100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   REPORTS AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. WW NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONT...ADEQUATE
   INSOLATION...AND SUBTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A PASSING IMPULSE
   HAS INITIATED CONVECTION NEAR/EAST OF ICT. RECENT REPORTS SUGGEST
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
   CORES...ACQUIRING ORGANIZATION FROM AROUND 25-30 KT OF CLOUD-LAYER
   SHEAR AND VIGOROUS VERTICAL MOTION FROM UPWARDS OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF
   MLCAPE. NONETHELESS...MARGINAL 850-700 WINDS /AND THE OVERALL WIND
   FIELD/...AS WELL AS CELLS BEING UNDERCUT BY A NWD-PROGRESSING
   BOUNDARY...WILL LIKELY FAVOR ONLY A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF
   LARGE HAIL REPORTS THIS EVENING. AS SUCH...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED.

   ..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 05/26/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37589932 37689806 38159619 38219550 38139510 37869487
               37429550 37119657 37049775 37089899 37319953 37589932 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2015
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