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Mesoscale Discussion 792
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0792
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0857 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

   Areas affected...Northeast KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 200157Z - 200300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Localized tornado threat may exist for the next hour or
   so.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows that a long-lived supercell
   has become better organized as it enters an area of residual
   low-level moisture near EMP. This slightly more favorable low-level
   moisture and the resulting more moist inflow to the storm appears to
   have supported an increase in intensity. Recent TWX VAD shows strong
   veering within lowest 1 km with 0-1 km SRH over 400 m2/s2, which is
   more than enough to support low-level rotation. Some localized
   vorticity enhancement is also possible given the storms presence
   within the warm frontal zone across the region. Given the limited
   spatial extent of the better low-level moisture and continue
   nocturnal stabilization, the longevity of the tornado threat with
   this supercell is expected to be short-lived. Even so, a localized
   tornado threat may exist for the next hour or so for this small
   portion of east-central KS.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 05/20/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39039609 39209573 39159541 39009528 38709519 38519527
               38429550 38419603 38569623 39039609 

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