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Mesoscale Discussion 792
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0792
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1207 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO N CNTRL/NERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 206...

   VALID 031707Z - 031830Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 206
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES WITH ONE OR MORE GROWING AND
   CONSOLIDATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. 
   SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS OCCURS...WITH THE RISK FOR SEVERE
   HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES INCREASING THROUGH 20-22Z.  AT
   LEAST PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH/EAST ARE BEING
   MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...INTENSE CONVECTION NOW EAST OF VALENTINE HAS TAKEN A
   SOUTHEASTWARD TURN DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO.  THIS LIKELY IS
   FOCUSED WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION /ROUGHLY DELINEATED
   BY THE 700 MB THERMAL GRADIENT/ WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOUTHEASTWARD
   DEVELOPMENT INTO AREA NORTH THROUGH WEST OF NORFOLK THROUGH 19-21Z. 
   AT THE SAME TIME...WITH CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND MIXING
   ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...STRENGTHENING LOWER LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A 30 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB
   JET SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NEAR/SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF
   VALENTINE.

   IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MODERATELY
   LARGE BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED CAPE...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH
   ACTIVITY GRADUALLY CONGEALING/CONSOLIDATING WITH DOWNSTREAM ACTIVITY
   INTO A GROWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  THE RISK FOR TORNADOES IS
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARD 20-22Z...IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUING
   RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL...AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ..KERR.. 06/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43699945 43389772 43059687 42159680 41599708 41399831
               41569909 42190064 42750113 43450046 43699945 

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Page last modified: June 03, 2014
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