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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK...NWRN TX...SERN NM
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264...
VALID 060356Z - 060500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264
CONTINUES.
CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED FOR THE MOST PART INTO TWO MAIN CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES. EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION SHIELDS ACROSS SRN KS AND
OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO SERN NM ARE BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT
DRIVING FORCES WITH THESE MCS'S. E-W ELONGATED MCS ALONG THE KS/OK
BORDER SHOULD DRIVE SSEWD ACROSS NWRN OK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WITH TX/NM HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ADVANCING
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TOWARD WRN OK INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AHEAD OF THESE
COMPLEXES...ORGANIZATION OF EACH WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE THE PROSPECT
FOR CONTINUED FORWARD PROPAGATION.
VERY LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SUPERCELL OVER COCHRAN
COUNTY TX...THOUGH HAIL SIZE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...WITH TIME...DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE
GREATEST RISK WITH THIS COMPLEX SUPERCELL CLUSTER.
RECENT RADAR TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST RENEWED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TX INTO THE SRN PARTS OF NM. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING WITHIN VERY MOIST/MODERATE INSTABILITY REGIME.
IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WW
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
CORES.
..DARROW.. 05/06/2008
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
32300477 37000178 36999852 32310167
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