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Mesoscale Discussion 793
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1241 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MO...SRN IL...SWRN INDIANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 031741Z - 032015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING POTENTIAL
   FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS
   COULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS PLACES A STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM NW
   OF COLUMBIA MO TO NEAR SAINT LOUIS EWD TO BETWEEN TERRE HAUTE AND
   BLOOMINGTON. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS CU SWELLING WITHIN
   CONFLUENT...AROUND-5-KT SFC WLYS THAT ALIGN WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE.
   ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE ALREADY BEEN NOTED WITH THE ACTIVITY
   IN SERN IL. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DIURNAL HEATING
   CONTINUES TO ERODE MLCINH AND PBL CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN -- ESPECIALLY
   NEAR AND S OF THE FRONT. GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON WILL BE INHIBITED BY THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
   FORCING FOR ASCENT. REGARDLESS...MODIFIED 12Z ILX AND SGF RAOBS FOR
   WARM/MOIST CONDITIONS S OF THE FRONT -- E.G. MIDDLE 80S TEMPS AND
   LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS -- SUGGEST 3000-4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. THIS WILL
   SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...AND DCAPE IN EXCESS
   OF 1000 J/KG WILL AID IN THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE PRESENCE
   OF 35-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR COULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION
   TO THE CONVECTION IF SUFFICIENT COVERAGE BREEDS AMALGAMATION OF COLD
   POOLS...IN WHICH CASE THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS WOULD INCREASE.

   ..COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39449341 39519255 39128961 39288701 38838620 38278695
               37938923 38169206 38919325 39449341 

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Page last modified: June 03, 2014
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