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Mesoscale Discussion 793
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0755 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/SRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225...

   VALID 270055Z - 270230Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT LIKELY EXISTS ACROSS/NEAR NRN
   PORTIONS OF WW 225...WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE
   CURRENTLY FOCUSING.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WSR-88D MOSAIC DEPICTS CONTINUED CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION /THE FOCUS OF WHICH IS PROGRESSING NWD WITH TIME/ OVER
   BLAINE AND MAJOR COUNTIES. TRENDS IN RADAR DATA...AS WELL AS EARLIER
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...SUGGEST THE ORIENTATION OF A WWD-MOVING
   BOUNDARY IS THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF THIS NWD INITIATION WITH TIME. THE
   SHEAR PROFILE CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING
   UPDRAFTS...WITH LEFT-MOVERS HAVING A HISTORY OF RELATIVELY EFFICIENT
   HAIL PRODUCTION. WITH THE PRESENCE OF 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   AND ROBUST BUOYANCY IN THE MID-LEVELS...UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION IN
   THESE STRONGER CORES SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD SOME POTENTIAL FOR
   LARGE HAIL...INCLUDING AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH.
   INDEED...THE LATEST KVNX DATA ILLUSTRATE AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
   ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER ROBUST HAIL CORE /DUAL-POL DATA SUGGEST
   SIDELOBE CONTAMINATION AROUND 20-25K FT/ OVER ERN MAJOR CO.

   HOWEVER...THE OVERALL THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
   EVENING...AS INSOLATION WANES AND CIN INCREASES.

   ..PICCA.. 05/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36959809 36859735 36109718 35019731 34339750 34449835
               34749902 36299861 36949819 36959809 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2015
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