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Mesoscale Discussion 793
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1056 PM CDT MON MAY 05 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN OK...NWRN TX...SERN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264...
   
   VALID 060356Z - 060500Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264
   CONTINUES.
   
   CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED FOR THE MOST PART INTO TWO MAIN CONVECTIVE
   COMPLEXES.  EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION SHIELDS ACROSS SRN KS AND
   OVER THE TX SOUTH PLAINS INTO SERN NM ARE BECOMING THE PREDOMINANT
   DRIVING FORCES WITH THESE MCS'S.  E-W ELONGATED MCS ALONG THE KS/OK
   BORDER SHOULD DRIVE SSEWD ACROSS NWRN OK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
   WITH TX/NM HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ADVANCING
   ACROSS THE PANHANDLE TOWARD WRN OK INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. 
   ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AHEAD OF THESE
   COMPLEXES...ORGANIZATION OF EACH WILL CERTAINLY ENHANCE THE PROSPECT
   FOR CONTINUED FORWARD PROPAGATION.
   
   VERY LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SUPERCELL OVER COCHRAN
   COUNTY TX...THOUGH HAIL SIZE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
   1-2 HOURS.  ADDITIONALLY...WITH TIME...DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE
   GREATEST RISK WITH THIS COMPLEX SUPERCELL CLUSTER.
   
   RECENT RADAR TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST RENEWED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TX INTO THE SRN PARTS OF NM.  THIS
   ACTIVITY IS EVOLVING WITHIN VERY MOIST/MODERATE INSTABILITY REGIME. 
   IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD NEWD INTO SRN PORTIONS OF WW
   WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
   CORES.
   
   ..DARROW.. 05/06/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   32300477 37000178 36999852 32310167 
   
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Page last modified: May 06, 2008
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