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Mesoscale Discussion 794
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0794
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0120 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN WY...WRN NEB...ADJACENT SWRN SOUTH
   DAKOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 031820Z - 031945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED ACROSS THE REGION
   WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT CONSIDERABLE
   INHIBITION REMAINS FOR MOIST PARCELS WITHIN THE GRADUALLY DEEPENING
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. 
   HOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH FURTHER SURFACE
   HEATING...AND THE CONTINUED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN APPROACHING
   SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE CREST OF LARGER SCALE
   MID/UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION.  IN RESPONSE...SCATTERED
   DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY AS EARLY AS 20-22Z.  IN THE
   PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE
   CAPE...DEEP LAYER SHEAR NORTH OF A 50-70 KT 500 MB JET STREAK
   CROSSING THE COLORADO ROCKIES WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUPERCELLS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR VERY
   LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND POTENTIAL FOR
   TORNADOES.

   ..KERR/CARBIN.. 06/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42420518 43860443 43230350 42990234 40940128 40860356
               41730469 42420518 

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Page last modified: June 03, 2014
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