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Mesoscale Discussion 794
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0794
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0918 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

   Areas affected...Southeast KY

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 200218Z - 200345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts are possible for the
   next hour or so across southeast KY. Anticipated marginal and
   short-lived severe threat is expected to preclude the need for a
   watch.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developed quickly across southeast KY as
   the outflow boundary encountered the warm and moist airmass across
   the region. The flow aloft is pretty meager (i.e. about 30 kt at
   5kft based on the 00Z BNA sounding and recent JKL VAD data) and the
   boundary-layer continues to undergo nocturnal destabilization. These
   factors suggest only modest storm organization and that any strong
   updrafts should be fairly short-lived. Even so, the 00Z BNA sounding
   sampled almost -12 deg C at 500 mb and 700-500 mb lapse rates over 7
   deg C per km, which suggests that strong updrafts are possible.
   Recent radar trends bear these suggestions out with strong but
   relatively unorganized and outflow-dominant storms noted from
   Pulaski to Johnson counties in southeast KY. Some isolated hail and
   damaging wind gusts are possible with this line of storms for the
   next hour or so but the negative factors listed above should
   preclude a more long-lived severe threat.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 05/20/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...

   LAT...LON   37498471 36968512 36658422 37118260 37528213 38048265
               37498471 

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