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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0794
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TX AND CENTRAL/WRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 111805Z - 111930Z
STORMS ARE TO EXPECTED INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND WRN/CENTRAL LA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH
A FEW SHORT LIVED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL
WINDS/SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL MS WWD ACROSS NRN
LA INTO ERN TX...ABOUT 40S OF TYR. FROM TYR WWD TO TPL...THE FRONT
WAS MOVING SLOWLY IN RESPONSE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING
CONVECTION. IN THE WARM SECTOR...TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
MID/UPPER 80S HAS RESULTED IN THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME STRONGLY
UNSTABLE...MLCAPE VALUES NOW UP TO 2500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...WEAK DYNAMICAL FORCING
AND 20-25 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR LONGER
LIVED SEVERE STORMS.
..IMY.. 05/11/2009
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 29479534 30659623 31039615 31519560 31769503 31999365
32129166 30749169 29829258 29479534
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