MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0795
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0127 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN AND WRN TX THROUGH ERN NM
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 061827Z - 062100Z
   
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF SWRN TX...INITIALLY 
   OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON AND LATER FARTHER NWD
   ACROSS ERN NM BY LATE AFTERNOON. INITIAL PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO
   BE LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY INCREASE
   BY EARLY EVENING.
   
   SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS ADVECTED LOW 60S DEWPOINTS INTO SWRN TX
   AND SERN NM. HOWEVER...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND MIXING HAS
   RESULTED IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.
   SWLY MID-UPPER FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER NW
   MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE MOIST
   AXIS. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS MLCAPE FROM 2000-2500 J/KG 
   OVER SWRN TX INTO SERN NM. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED CUMULUS HAS
   BEEN INCREASING OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING IS
   BEING AUGMENTED BY STRONG DIABATIC HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS INITIATION
   MAY OCCUR IN THIS AREA BY 20Z AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SWLY
   MID-UPPER FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER SWRN TX-SERN NM INTO THE EVENING
   AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET
   ROTATING THROUGH SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. SELY LOW
   LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO SWLY AND INCREASING THROUGH 500 MB WILL RESULT
   IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL STORMS. THE
   20+ DEGREES LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS SPREADS AND MODEST LOW
   LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST LARGE HAIL WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN
   INITIAL THREATS. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
   STRENGTHEN BY EARLY EVENING ALONG WITH LOWERING LCL HEIGHTS...AND
   THIS WILL PRESENT AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES BEFORE THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LATER IN THE EVENING.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/06/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...
   
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