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Mesoscale Discussion 795
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0795
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0151 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MT...NERN WY...WRN SD...SWRN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 031851Z - 032045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE SVR-TSTM RISK MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS...POTENTIALLY WARRANTING WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ARE STUNTING APPRECIABLE DIURNAL
   DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...MODEST DIURNAL HEATING HAS BEEN
   SUFFICIENT FOR A CORRIDOR OF 500-1000-J/KG MLCAPE TO EXTEND NWWD
   INTO THE AREA. THIS IS BEING AIDED BY THE RETURN OF MODERATELY RICH
   MOISTURE FOR THESE ELEVATIONS -- I.E. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE
   50S. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ATOP THE UPSLOPE FLOW
   REGIME IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTION
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRESENCE OF 30-40-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS AND
   A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL FOSTER
   SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION
   INCLUDING POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN FAR SERN MT AND
   VICINITY WHERE LOWER LCLS EXIST AMIDST BACKED SFC FLOW.

   ..COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   46750451 46140274 45370268 44520344 44110528 45260671
               46570655 46750451 

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Page last modified: June 03, 2014
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