MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0796
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN HIGH PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 251957Z - 252200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
   PRIMARY THREATS OF SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED
   FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS RECENTLY SHOWN AN
   INCREASE IN CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG A DRYLINE DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS. AT 19Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
   SE CO WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE EXTENDING SSWWD TO SRR IN SERN
   NM. THE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO MIX AND
   TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
   GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S. MODIFYING THE 12Z AMA SOUNDING WITH THESE
   CONDITIONS YIELDS A WEAKLY CAPPED...VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
   /MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J PER KG/. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR FIELDS ARE WEAK
   WITH LESS THAN 30 KT INDICATED ON THE HDX VAD AND LATEST
   MESOANALYSIS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN THE SHEAR IS
   EXPECTED...WHICH WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME STORM
   ORGANIZATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...A FEW
   SEVERE STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
   PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS WILL
   BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/25/2013


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   33740531 35430474 37700399 38110358 38180326 38160264
               37880212 37210223 36020256 33360310 32110345 32020458
               32530547 33740531