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Mesoscale Discussion 796
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0796
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1056 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225...

   VALID 270356Z - 270530Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...EPISODIC SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS THE PRIMARY
   HAZARD LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL OK AND POSSIBLY INTO
   ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL OK. SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH 225 CONTINUES UNTIL 1AM CDT/06Z. CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OK FOR
   THE POSSIBILITY /40 PERCENT/ OF AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SOME ELEVATED
   SUPERCELLS CONTINUE PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OK TO THE
   NORTH OF I-40 AS OF 1030 PM CDT. A MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET /30 KT
   AROUND 1 KM AGL PER KTLX WSR-88D VWP DATA/ AND RELATED WEAK WARM
   ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME SEEMS LIKELY TO SUSTAIN
   CONVECTION GENERALLY EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT TOWARD
   EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK. WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS BECOMING
   INCREASINGLY DECOUPLED...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 3000+ J/KG
   MUCAPE SAMPLED VIA THE 00Z NORMAN OBSERVED SOUNDING WILL LIKELY
   CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONGER UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AMID
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30 KT. A LOOSELY ORGANIZED COMPLEX MAY GRADUALLY
   EVOLVE AND GENERALLY SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS
   CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND RELATED UPDRAFT INTERFERENCE MAY BEGIN TO
   TEMPER HAIL MAGNITUDES...BUT SOME EMBEDDED SEVERE-CALIBER HAIL WILL
   REMAIN POSSIBLE NONETHELESS. FURTHERMORE...STRONGER NEAR-SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR AMID A VERY MOIST/STEEP LAPSE RATE
   ENVIRONMENT...IN SPITE OF NOCTURNALLY INCREASING CINH. THIS MAY BE
   THE CASE PARTICULARLY NEAR A WEAK BOUNDARY /LIKELY RELATED TO
   EARLIER CONVECTION/ ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OK INTO PARTS OF
   EAST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK.

   ..GUYER.. 05/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35679909 36129827 36629633 36669554 36559511 35899490
               35169522 34839688 35119860 35679909 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2015
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