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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0796
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN NEB...FAR NERN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 061858Z - 062030Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WITHIN SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH. VERY LARGE
HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY.
THE INITIAL CONVECTION OVER SRN SD HAS LAID OUT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND REINFORCED THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN NEB AND SWRN SD.
MEANWHILE...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WIND SHIFT/DRYLINE OVER WRN NEB.
VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CU FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS CHERRY COUNTY NEB...WITH MID LEVEL CONVECTION ALONG
A LINE FROM SNY TO JUST S OF ONL. 18Z LBF SOUNDING INDICATES SURFACE
BASED INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE UPPER
70S. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...ALL CIN SHOULD BE REMOVED OVER W CNTRL
NEB BY 19-20Z. STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY FORM OVER N CNTRL NEB...AND
BUILD SWWD WITH TIME. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH VEERING AND INCREASING WIND SPEEDS WITH HEIGHT WILL
FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL. MOST OF THE
STORMS SHOULD BE PROFICIENT AT PRODUCING OUTFLOW SHORTLY AFTER
INITIATION...WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE.
..JEWELL.. 05/06/2008
ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
40630364 41020336 41970240 42930207 43490199 43510128
43150086 42750031 42529973 42229866 41709773 40660030
40250176 40090272 40210341
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