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Mesoscale Discussion 796
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0796
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MONTANA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 031940Z - 032145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
   UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION INVOF A LEE TROUGH ANALYZED
   FROM E OF HAVRE TO E OF LEWISTOWN...AND FARTHER W TOWARD THE LITTLE
   BELT MOUNTAINS SE OF GREAT FALLS. STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS AND ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NERN MONTANA...AIDED BY
   MODEST MID-LEVEL ASCENT PRECEDING A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. SEVERAL
   CLOUD-FREE AREAS EXIST WHERE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS BEING
   ENHANCED. HOWEVER...BUOYANCY INCREASES ARE BEING LIMITED BY THE
   PRESENCE OF /1/ ONLY MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES -- E.G.
   7.0-7.5 C/KM IN THE H7-H5 LAYER -- AND /2/ ONLY MODESTLY RICH
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE
   50S. REGARDLESS...SPORADIC INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL MAY
   ACCOMPANY STORMS INTO EARLY EVENING AIDED BY AROUND 25-35 KT OF DEEP
   SHEAR...ENHANCED BY BACKED SFC FLOW E OF THE LEE TROUGH.
   HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER BUOYANCY...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK IS
   NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   48310979 48930875 48960573 48750430 47190424 46750558
               46950989 48310979 

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Page last modified: June 03, 2014
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