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Mesoscale Discussion 797
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0797
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0334 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL PA AND S-CNTRL NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 032034Z - 032230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
   EVENING. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THE
   ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NWRN INTO
   N-CNTRL PA WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT
   LAKES REGION...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO ADJACENT
   S-CNTRL NY. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE REGION INTO
   THE EARLY EVENING. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPENED IN THE WAKE OF
   EARLIER CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...FOSTERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE
   AROUND 500-1500 J/KG BOLSTERED BY MIDDLE-60S SFC DEWPOINTS. AS
   SUCH...STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED DMGG WIND
   GUSTS CONTINUING -- AIDED BY 20-25 KT OF FLOW BETWEEN 1 AND 3 KM AGL
   SAMPLED BY THE CCX VWP. HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW --
   AS EVIDENCED BY QLCS FORWARD MOTION ONLY REACHING 35-40 KT -- A
   GREATER SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

   ..COHEN/CARBIN.. 06/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   40947961 41407809 42717664 42397542 41157559 40237682
               40107942 40487975 40947961 

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Page last modified: June 03, 2014
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