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Mesoscale Discussion 798
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0798
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CENTRAL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 270853Z - 271100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH HAIL
   APPROACHING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND/OR THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
   WIND GUST ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN MO AND POSSIBLY REACHING
   SWRN IL TOWARD 12Z.  HOWEVER...OVERALL SYNOPTIC TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST
   MOST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE DURING THE REST OF THE
   OVERNIGHT TO EARLY THIS MORNING.

   DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA
   INDICATED AN INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS SWRN INTO SRN AND
   SOUTH-CENTRAL MO SINCE 07-0730Z.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THIS
   REGION OF MO...WHILE HAVING GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES OVERNIGHT...REMAINS
   UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SRN EXTENT OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
   TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS
   FEATURE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM MO...BUT IN
   THE SHORT-TERM THIS ASCENT COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG A
   SWLY 30-35 KT LLJ EXTENDING INTO SRN/ERN MO SHOULD PROVIDE
   SUFFICIENT LIFT INTO THE EARLY MORNING FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. 
   RESIDUAL RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER OK/AR INTO CENTRAL
   MO /MUCAPE UP TO 1500-2000 J PER KG/ AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   /7-7.5 C PER KM/ EXTENDING FROM ERN OK/NWRN AR INTO SRN/ERN MO MAY
   PROVE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WITH STRONGER
   STORMS.  HOWEVER...A DECREASE IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGESTS STORM
   ORGANIZATION WILL TEND TO REMAIN MINIMAL AND SHOULD LIMIT THE
   OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  THE 07Z HRRR AGREES WITH THE
   SCENARIO FOR SIMILAR COVERAGE OF STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH 10Z..AS
   CURRENTLY INDICATED BY MOSAIC RADAR...AND THEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
   STORM DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER AS GREATER FORCING FOR ASCENT WANES.

   ..PETERS/HART.. 05/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37439392 38379221 38719082 38779004 38178936 37708929
               36989022 36699131 36649230 36669343 37439392 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2015
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