MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0798
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0611 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...W TX...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 252311Z - 260015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONGOING STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT IN
   COVERAGE THIS EVENING. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE ONGOING
   ACROSS ERN NM AS OF 23Z. WHILE UPPER FLOW IS MARGINAL...MODEST SWLY
   MIDLEVEL FLOW OF ATOP SELY SFC WINDS IS RESULTING IN EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   OF 25-30 KTS...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WHEN
   COMBINED WITH MODERATE MUCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG. LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH ANY ORGANIZED MULTICELL/MARGINAL SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURE...WHILE SEVERE WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN LARGE
   TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. SOME UPSCALE GROWTH IS POSSIBLE AS OUTFLOWS
   MERGE THIS EVENING...THOUGH A GENERAL LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
   AND DIMINISHING OF AVAILABLE BUOYANCY WITH DIURNAL COOLING WILL
   BEGIN TO LIMIT THE THREAT NEAR/AFTER SUNSET. 

   WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WIND/HAIL...WW
   ISSUANCE WILL BE CONSIDERED IF COVERAGE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
   INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SERN NM AND ADJACENT AREAS OF W TX.

   ..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 05/25/2013


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   32820486 33860451 35350412 36950358 37000258 36960186
               36980155 36050157 35550161 35020176 34800177 33800193
               33060209 32080254 31460359 31700506 32820486