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Mesoscale Discussion 799
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0799
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1113 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

   Areas affected...Northwest TN...Western KY...Southeast
   IN...Southwest OH

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 201613Z - 201745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong thunderstorms are expected to develop
   across portions of the Ohio Valley this afternoon.  Locally damaging
   winds are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer heating is contributing to increased
   buoyancy south of the OH River across much of KY and TN. 
   Surface-3km lapse rates have increased to near 8 C/km and CINH is
   very weak across this region.  Over the last half hour or so CU
   field has expanded markedly across western TN/KY such that showers
   are developing, and evening isolated thunderstorms.  It appears
   convection will gradually deepen along a boundary that is currently
   draped from southern IN, southwest into western TN.  This activity
   is evolving along eastern-most fringe of stronger flow aloft that
   will aid potential storm organization.  Locally damaging winds may
   accompany this activity as it spreads/develops northeast into
   southern portions of IN/OH.

   ..Darrow/Weiss.. 05/20/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36458857 38538711 39918538 39268393 37418549 35848757
               36458857 

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Page last modified: May 20, 2017
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