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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0799
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0910 AM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/ERN OK INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/ERN KS AND WRN
AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 121410Z - 121515Z
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL OK
AND DEVELOP NWD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKING EWD
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH AN ATTENDANT 45 KT WLY MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
OVER FAR NRN OK PER WIND PROFILER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN/WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ALONG NOSE OF 35-40 KT LLJ EXTENDING INTO
WRN/CENTRAL OK TO CENTRAL KS. THIS COMBINED WITH ASCENT ATTENDANT
TO MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG/
SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS ALONG WRN EDGE OF ONGOING ACTIVITY FROM CENTRAL
OK INTO CENTRAL KS...WITH THIS REGION RESIDING CLOSER TO STRONGER
MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE INFLOW. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /30-40 KT/
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7.6 C/KM PER OUN 12Z SOUNDING/ WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ACTIVITY
SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS EWD INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.
..PETERS.. 05/12/2009
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 34979751 35859809 37319838 38829797 38669626 37399579
36319581 35599492 35029357 34379338 33749437 34149561
34979751
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