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Mesoscale Discussion 799
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0799
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0448 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND WRN LA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 270948Z - 271145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND WRN LA
   ALONG A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOWLY SEWD. WW ISSUANCE IS
   UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   DISCUSSION...A LINE OF CONVECTION ORIGINATING FROM N-CNTRL/NERN TX
   HAS MOVED SLOWLY SEWD AROUND 20-25 KTS AND MAINTAINED ITSELF OVER
   THE PAST FEW HOURS. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS LINE OF
   THUNDERSTORMS IS PLENTIFUL...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
   70S. ATOP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0-7.5 DEG C/KM PER LATEST
   RAP MESOANALYSIS AND 00Z SOUNDING FROM LCH...MLCAPE OF 1500-3000
   J/KG IS PRESENT ACROSS THE MCD AREA. WHILE MIDLEVEL FLOW AROUND
   30-40 KT IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
   MAINTAIN THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A
   MARGINAL STRONG/GUSTY WIND THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE LINE
   ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. REGARDLESS...THE SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED/MARGINAL THROUGH ABOUT
   12Z...AND WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

   DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS...
   PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE LINE IN AND AROUND THE
   HOUSTON METRO AREA...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY
   BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM METEOROLOGICAL
   DETAILS REGARDING THE HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING THREAT...SEE WPC
   MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 138.

   ..GLEASON/HART.. 05/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30069642 30289649 30699513 30919471 31539412 32149362
               32179230 30899243 29879329 29299482 29029641 30069642 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2015
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