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Mesoscale Discussion 799
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0799
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0437 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 032137Z - 032300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS INCREASING
   ACROSS PARTS OF FAR ERN NEB INTO SW IA/NRN MO NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
   THIS THREAT WILL SHIFT E/SE INTO SE IA/NE MO LATER THIS EVENING. A
   NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...PRIOR TO
   THAT...A LOCAL EXTENSION TO THE EAST FOR TORNADO WATCH 207 IS
   LIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES AND EXTREME
   WINDS IS EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-MO VALLEY IN THE VICINITY
   OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT EXTENDS E/SE ACROSS CENTRAL NEB INTO
   SW IA AND N-CENTRAL MO. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AND
   STRONG SFC HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 4500
   J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR. SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ON/NEAR THE WARM
   FRONT NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR
   STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A BOWING
   SEGMENT NEAR OMAHA SHOULD THRIVE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUE ON
   A SEWD TRAJECTORY ALONG THE WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
   SIGNIFICANT WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65KT WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THIS BOWING SEGMENT...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. 

   AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
   MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT AS LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
   BECOME MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. ANY SUPERCELLS
   THAT CAN REMAIN SEMI-DISCRETE WILL POSE A STRONG/SIGNIFICANT TORNADO
   THREAT. EVENTUALLY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A
   FORWARD PROPAGATING BOWING QLCS ACROSS SE IA/NE MO WITH THE
   POTENTIAL FOR A WIDE SWATH OF EXTREME/DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE MCD
   AREA. 

   TORNADO WATCH 207 HAS BEEN EXTENDED EWD FOR THE TIME BEING ACROSS
   PARTS OF SRN IA/NRN MO. A NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE
   NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 06/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41069637 41469639 41749626 41889582 41809503 41529353
               41159213 40709150 40379141 40109151 39879167 39639213
               39559313 39729423 40059531 40399587 41069637 

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Page last modified: June 03, 2014
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