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Mesoscale Discussion 800
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0800
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0454 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL NEB

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 207...209...

   VALID 032154Z - 032330Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 207...209...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ONGOING TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH A CONTINUED
   THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 KT...AND
   TORNADOES. A FEW TORNADOES COULD BE STRONG...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
   S-CNTRL NEB.

   DISCUSSION...MESOANALYSIS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEALS AN
   ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS OVER CNTRL NEB. KLNX RADAR
   IMAGERY SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING S OF THE ONGOING
   ACTIVITY IN HOOKER AND THOMAS COUNTIES...LIMITING THE TORNADO THREAT
   WITH THOSE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

   FARTHER E /CNTRL NEB/...SUPERCELL NEAR ODX CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG
   LOW-LEVEL ROTATION AND WDSS-II MESH NEAR 3 INCHES. THIS SUPERCELL IS
   MOVING INTO A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR OF 60 KT...20 KT BACKED SURFACE WINDS...0-3 KM SRH OVER 600
   M2/S2...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7
   DEG C PER KM. EFFECTIVE-LAYER STP IS 12. ALL OF THESE FACTORS
   INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING A STRONG TORNADO. IT
   APPEARS THE ONGOING SUPERCELL WILL HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF
   PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO AS LONG AS THE IT CAN REMAIN
   SEMI-DISCRETE AND AVOID NEGATIVE STORM INTERACTIONS. 

   ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT S OF THE ONGOING STORMS /SUCH AS THE
   RECENT UPDRAFT IN CUSTER COUNTY/ IN THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WOULD
   LIKELY BE SUPERCELLULAR AS LONG AS IT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE.

   ..MOSIER.. 06/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41820132 42080035 41959845 41679766 41379700 40799667
               40079695 39979884 40860182 41820132 

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Page last modified: June 03, 2014
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