MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0800
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0104 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 121804Z - 121900Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
   EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA. A WW DOES
   NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.
   
   FL PENINSULA RESIDES AT THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
   TROUGH...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM PIE TO MLB TO
   EFFECTIVELY STALL OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE WAS
   LOCATED UPSTREAM FROM THE REGION OVER THE FL PANHANDLE...WHICH MAY
   RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT AS IT SLOWLY
   SLIDES SE. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
   BECOMING MORE WELL DEFINED...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
   CONVERGENT FLOW REGIME OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. THESE
   LOW LEVEL FEATURES WILL FAVOR A CONTINUED INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE
   CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
   AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S WILL RESULT IN A
   VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
   SUGGESTS THAT MULTICELL STORM TYPE WILL PREDOMINATE...WITH STRONGEST
   UPDRAFT CORES MOST FAVORED ALONG BOUNDARIES AND OUTFLOW
   INTERSECTIONS. DUE TO THE HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT...PRECIPITATION
   LOADING MAY RESULT IN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ALONG WITH A MARGINAL
   THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/12/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
   
   LAT...LON   25258080 25718130 25848148 26688222 27758264 28788246
               29148182 28738081 26718003 25538036 25258080