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Mesoscale Discussion 800
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0800
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN/SERN IL...FAR SERN MO...WRN KY...AND
   SWRN IND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271257Z - 271500Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING
   INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS ONGOING
   STORMS IN SERN MO AND ADJACENT SWRN IL ADVANCE EAST AND INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
   THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...AT 1240Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN ORGANIZED
   CLUSTER OF STORMS ADVANCING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 35-40 KT ACROSS
   SERN MO AND ADJACENT SWRN IL.  THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT IMMEDIATELY
   DOWNSTREAM OF THESE STORMS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY IS MARGINALLY
   UNSTABLE.  HOWEVER...EXPECTED MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER PER
   SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND THE ONSET OF DIABATIC HEATING PER BREAKS IN
   THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
   SUGGESTS THE AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE.

   CURRENT TRENDS IN IR IMAGERY INDICATED CLOUD TOP WARMING WITH THE
   SERN MO/SWRN IL CLUSTER OF STORMS WHICH MAY SUGGEST A MINIMUM IN THE
   SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE NEXT HOUR.  HOWEVER...FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE MCV WITH THE MO/IL CLUSTER AND WITHIN THE
   SRN EXTENT OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDES
   CONCERN FOR RE-STRENGTHENING OF STORMS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES INTO A
   MODESTLY SHEARED /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT/ AND A
   DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.

   ..PETERS/HART.. 05/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   39468591 38368610 37448705 36778823 36668926 36818965
               37908903 39228833 39878792 40278729 40388623 39848604
               39468591 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2015
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