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Mesoscale Discussion 801
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0801
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1050 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY ACROSS THE HUDSON AND
   CHAMPLAIN VALLEYS THROUGH VT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271550Z - 271715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL WILL
   INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS STORMS INCREASE ACROSS
   THIS AREA.  WW POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK N-S CONFLUENCE
   AXIS/TROUGH ACROSS ERN NY JUST W OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND HUDSON
   VALLEYS...WITH HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF THE PRE-EXISTING MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER /MID 60S DEWPOINTS/ UNDERWAY ALONG THIS AXIS. 
   VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS AN INCREASE IN SCATTERED TCU/CB ACROSS THIS
   AREA...WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS -- A FEW NOW PRODUCING LIGHTNING --
   INDICATED IN THE LATEST RADAR AND LIGHTNING LOOPS.

   MORNING ALB RAOB AND LATEST AREA WSR-88D VWPS REVEAL WEAKLY
   VEERING/STRENGTHENING FLOW WITH HEIGHT -- SUFFICIENT FOR
   ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS.  AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT GRADUALLY
   INCREASES ACROSS THIS AREA AS HEIGHT FALLS OVERSPREAD THE REGION
   AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...ADDITIONAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
   WILL SUPPORT A STEADY INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY. 
   RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL HAIL RISK...BUT
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY INTO THE
   EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   45357117 43367229 41787376 41977546 43817450 45017394
               45097171 45357117 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2015
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