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Mesoscale Discussion 801
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0801
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0608 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...FAR SE CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 032308Z - 040115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SE CO AND WRN KS
   FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SEVERE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BUT LOW SEVERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
   PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN
   SEVERAL ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN THE HOT AND DEEPLY
   MIXED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS FAR SE CO/FAR SW KS. MOST GUIDANCE
   INDICATES THAT A STORM OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH FOR
   ORGANIZATION.

   ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES
   IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND 
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR GENERALLY FROM 50 TO 60 KT. MESOANALYSIS
   ESTIMATES MLCAPE IS CURRENTLY NEAR 2000 J PER KG WITH SOME MLCINH
   REMAINING. SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORED WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN
   OVERCOME THIS CINH. INITIAL THREAT WILL BE SVR HAIL WITH AT LEAST
   SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. GIVEN THE
   DEEPLY MIXING ENVIRONMENT...STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
   POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY AS STORMS DISSIPATES.

   ..MOSIER/HART.. 06/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   38030260 39350199 39800173 39920088 39400042 38260068
               37270117 37040241 37470267 38030260 

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Page last modified: June 04, 2014
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