MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0801
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0943 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS...SWRN/S-CNTRL NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 218...220...

   VALID 260243Z - 260415Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
   218...220...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS NWRN KS INTO CNTRL
   NEB...BUT A DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY HAS RECENTLY BEEN
   NOTED. WHILE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
   LATER THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN AND NORTHEAST OF WW 220 IN CNTRL
   NEB...SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO WANE ACROSS WW 218 UNTIL
   SCHEDULED 0400Z EXPIRATION.

   DISCUSSION...A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS
   NWRN KS IN WW 218 HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE LAST HOUR...THOUGH AN
   INTENSE STORM REMAINS ACROSS SHERIDAN COUNTY. DIURNAL COOLING AND
   INCREASINGLY MARGINAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO THE EAST OF THE NWRN KS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED SLOW DECREASE IN THE SEVERE
   THREAT. DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS
   N-CNTRL KS...THOUGH A LOCAL EXTENSION MAY BE REQUIRED IF CURRENT
   ACTIVITY SUSTAINS ITSELF PAST THE EXPIRATION TIME. 

   FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SWRN/S-CNTRL NEB IN WW 220...STORMS THAT
   DEVELOPED ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT QUICKLY INTENSIFIED AND
   PRODUCED LARGE HAIL...BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS SINCE WEAKENED.
   WHILE THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SURFACE-BASED STORMS IS
   WANING...ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL BE POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLULAR WITH
   VERY LARGE HAIL GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
   SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
   INCREASES THROUGH THE EVENING...ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY INCREASE
   NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL GIVEN
   MODERATE CAPE/SHEAR FOR PARCELS ROOTED AROUND 850-900 MB. THIS
   THREAT WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST OF THE WW220 AND AREAS INTO NERN NEB
   WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WW ISSUANCE LATER TONIGHT.

   ..DEAN.. 05/26/2013


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39040134 39420137 40160129 40810114 41390091 42000030
               42229933 42199789 42029722 41809662 40549744 40209784
               39729830 39229878 38939926 38779984 38860092 38920108
               39040134