Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 802
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 802 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0802
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1109 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI/E CENTRAL IL/NRN INDIANA/NWRN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271609Z - 271745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
   ACROSS THE SERN UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SWD INTO THE INDIANA/NWRN OH
   VICINITY.  DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL LIKELY EVOLVE LOCALLY WITH
   STRONGER CELLS...WHICH WARRANTS WW CONSIDERATION WITHIN THE NEXT
   HOUR OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT WV LOOP REVEALS A VORT MAX CROSSING LK MI INTO W
   CENTRAL LOWER MI ATTM...VEERED/UNIDIRECTIONAL -- BUT INCREASING --
   FLOW WITH HEIGHT IS OBSERVED JUST S OF THE NEWD TRACK OF THIS
   FEATURE...RESULTING IN A WIND PROFILE FEATURING AMPLE SPEED SHEAR
   FOR ORGANIZED/BOWING CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RISK FOR DAMAGING
   WINDS.  

   HEATING OF THE RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /LOW TO MID 60S
   DEWPOINTS/ THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES TO AROUND
   1000 J/KG PER LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...WHICH HAS BEEN SUFFICIENT
   FOR A MARKED INCREASE IN TCU/A FEW CB WITHIN THE PAST HALF HOUR. 
   WITH STORMS LIKELY TO INCREASE/ORGANIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS...RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL MAY
   REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE PRIOR TO 27/17Z.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   41648351 41218338 40108486 39548748 40328808 41388749
               42028618 42898511 43298415 43538376 43948267 42918220
               41648351 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 27, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities