MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0802
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0850 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NM AND SOUTHWEST/WEST/NORTHWEST TX INTO
   WESTERN OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 267...269...
   
   VALID 070150Z - 070315Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 267...269...CONTINUES.
   
   TORNADO WATCH 267 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z -- THIS WATCH WILL BE REPLACED
   PRIOR TO ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION. TORNADO WATCH 269 CONTINUES UNTIL
   06Z.
   
   SCATTERED SUPERCELLS/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST/WEST TX
   THIS EVENING...WHILE A SMALL MCS/EXPANDING COLD POOL CONTINUES TO
   DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CAPROCK VICINITY IN BETWEEN THE
   LUBBOCK/AMARILLO/CHILDRESS AREAS AS OF 0145Z. FARTHER WEST...STORMS
   HAVE DRAMATICALLY INCREASED ACROSS EASTERN NM OVER THE PAST FEW
   HOURS...WITH LOW LEVEL MASS FIELDS RESPONDING/BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE INCREASING WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE ONSET OF STRONGER
   LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
   CURRENTLY ADVANCING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AZ/NORTHERN MEXICO
   BORDER PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 
   
   MOST OF FAR EASTERN NM INTO A LARGE PART OF WEST TX HAS NOT BEEN
   CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED GIVEN THE DOMINANT SUPERCELL MODE
   EARLIER...AND WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE SUPPORT THIS
   EVENING AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A WELL-ORGANIZED
   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
   SCATTERED/SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED
   TORNADOES/VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE DOMINANT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
   HOURS AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
   HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF STRONG LINEAR FORCING LATE TONIGHT WILL
   FAVOR THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF A CONVECTIVE LINE WITH THE PRIMARY
   RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL OVERNIGHT.
   
   GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...A REPLACEMENT WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR WW 267
   PRIOR TO 03Z. IN ADDITION...PORTIONS OF WESTERN OK/WESTERN PART OF
   NORTH TX WILL BE MONITORED IN THE SHORT TERM FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH
   OWING TO THE UPSTREAM CLUSTER OF STORMS.
   
   ..GUYER.. 05/07/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
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