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Mesoscale Discussion 803
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0803
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0704 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL INTO ERN NEB

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...

   VALID 040004Z - 040100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING STRONG/DAMAGING
   WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A STRONG TORNADO WILL CONTINUE INTO
   THE EVENING. SEVERAL STORMS/BOWING SEGMENTS NOTED FROM CENTRAL NEB
   INTO SW IA CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST CONCERNING FEATURES INTO EARLY
   EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NEB APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZING INTO
   A STRONGER BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS GARFIELD S/SW INTO CUSTER COUNTY.
   THIS LINE OF STORMS MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR EVOLVING INTENSE WIND EVENT
   INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM
   THE SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELL OVER BUTLER COUNTY MAY LIMIT...AT LEAST
   INITIALLY...DEVELOPMENT OF THE BOWING FEATURE AS COOLER/DRIER AIR
   MAY UNDERCUT STORMS. SHOULD THE BOWING FEATURE REMAIN ON THE COLD
   SIDE OF THE OF THE BOUNDARY...STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE LINE MAY NOT TAP INTO THE BEST
   DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS.

   THAT BEING SAID...THE SUPERCELL OVER BUTLER COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO
   MOVE INTO THE MORE FAVORABLE WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THIS
   STORM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A STRONG TORNADO THREAT AS LONG AS IT
   REMAINS SEMI-DISCRETE. IT IS EXPECTED THAT WITH TIME IT WILL
   EVENTUALLY ALSO BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A BOWING SEGMENT AND MAY
   HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE OF POSING AN INTENSE/DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS
   IT TRACK SE TOWARD SE NEB/SW IA/NW MO.

   FURTHER EAST ACROSS SW IA NEAR THE MO STATE LINE...STRONG BOWING
   SEGMENT WITH A HISTORY OF DESTRUCTIVE WINDS HAS BEEN ABLE TO
   MAINTAIN STRENGTH DESPITE LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   ENVIRONMENT. THIS THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO N-CENTRAL
   MO...ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ONLY BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE WITH
   TIME INTO TONIGHT.

   ..LEITMAN.. 06/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41540036 41970006 42139966 42189882 42079814 42029759
               41199480 41049418 40939367 40709358 40309364 40059387
               39779433 40119662 40499859 40970015 41300039 41540036 

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Page last modified: June 04, 2014
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