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Mesoscale Discussion 803
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0803
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0542 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

   Areas affected...Far Southeast Indiana...Central Kentucky...Middle
   Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254...

   Valid 202242Z - 210045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 254
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and hail will be possible across the
   eastern part of WW 254 over the next couple of hours. The severe
   threat is expected to gradually decrease later this evening as the
   storms move eastward into a less favorable environment. For this
   reason, weather watch issuance is not expected to the east of the
   current watch. However, a local extension could be needed if parts
   of the line remain strong enough to produce isolated damaging wind
   gusts.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows a line of strong to
   severe thunderstorms oriented from south to north across middle
   Tennessee and central Kentucky. This line of convection is located
   along an old outflow boundary from the previous night's storms.
   Ahead of the line, the airmass is weakly unstable with the RAP
   estimating MLCAPE values in the 500 to 750 J/kg range. The RAP also
   suggests that deep-layer shear drops off quickly with eastward
   extent. For this reason, the storms are expected to decrease in
   intensity later this evening as the convection approaches the
   eastern edge of WW 254.

   ..Broyles.. 05/20/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36458857 38538711 39918538 39268393 37418549 35848757
               36458857 

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