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Mesoscale Discussion 803
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0803
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1121 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...THE CATSKILLS/LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AREA SSWWD ACROSS
   WRN NJ/ERN PA INTO MD/NRN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271621Z - 271715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK TO INCREASE AS STORMS ORGANIZE OVER THE NEXT
   1-2 HOURS.  WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM
   ERN PA SWD INTO NWRN VA ATTM...AHEAD OF ONGOING/WEAK PRECIPITATION
   BAND CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS AND INVOF AN ASSOCIATED/NNE-SSW
   SURFACE TROUGH.  HEATING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /60S TO LOW 70S
   DEWPOINTS/ HAS YIELDED AN AXIS OF 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE AHEAD
   OF THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS...AND FURTHER
   DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED CONVECTIVE INCREASE -- BOTH
   IN TERMS OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
   ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA -- WHERE RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE NEAR TERM.  HOWEVER...A MORE MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER -- AND THUS GREATER DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL --
   FARTHER S MAY PARTIALLY OFFSET THE SOMEWHAT WEAKER KINEMATICS TO
   SUPPORT SEVERE RISK AS FAR S AS THE DC METRO AREA.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   42247370 41927327 40877402 38857569 38597706 38857833
               40387733 41937601 42267523 42247370 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2015
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