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Mesoscale Discussion 804
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0805 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NE MO INTO W-CENTRAL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 040105Z - 040230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A STRONG WIND/MARGINAL HAIL THREAT MAY CONTINUE TO THE
   E/SE OF TORNADO WATCH 210. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT QUICKLY
   DIMINISHES TOWARD CENTRAL IL...BUT A SMALL WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
   THE MCD AREA.

   DISCUSSION...00Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ACROSS
   N-CNTRL MO/S-CNTRL IA. THIS CLUSTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK SEWD
   ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF A WARM FRONT. OOZ
   ILX RAOB SHOWS STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT MIDLEVEL WARMING
   ABOVE 700 MB...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO WEAKENING/MORE
   UNORGANIZED STORMS WITH SEWD EXTENT. RECENT MESH AND CAPPI DATA
   SUPPORT THIS ASSUMPTION WITH DOWNWARD TRENDS WITH EWD EXTENT.
   HOWEVER...A SMALL ZONE OF ADEQUATE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES COINCIDES
   WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AXIS NEAR THE MS RIVER AND SEVERE STORMS
   MAY CONTINUE FOR A SHORT PERIOD DOWNSTREAM OF WW 210. STRONG WINDS
   AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS
   THAT PERSIST INTO THE MCD AREA. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

   WHILE THE NEAR-TERM SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED...THE THREAT OF
   STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT AFTER 06Z.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 06/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40539227 40539156 40249077 39769009 39318995 39048997
               38849023 38779057 38839107 38949147 39179190 39409222
               39559243 39769246 40169244 40539227 

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Page last modified: June 04, 2014
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