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Mesoscale Discussion 804
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0804
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0607 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

   Areas affected...North-central Indiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 202307Z - 210130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will be possible early this
   evening across parts of north-central Indiana. Strong wind gusts,
   hail and perhaps a brief tornado will be possible. Due to the
   isolated nature of the threat, weather watch issuance is not
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a frontal boundary
   extending from northern Illinois southeastward into central Indiana.
   A moist and unstable airmass is located to the south of the boundary
   where surface dewpoints are generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s
   F. This is contributing to a pocket of moderate instability with
   MLCAPE estimated to be between 500 and 1500 J/kg. In addition, the
   Indianapolis WSR-88D VWP shows 0-6 km shear around 45 kt with some
   gradual veering of the winds with height in the lowest 2 Km AGL.
   This should be enough for storm rotation and hail with the stronger
   cells. As thunderstorms move northeastward across the warm front, a
   brief tornado will be possible. Strong wind gusts will also be
   possible. The severe threat is expected to be short-lived due to the
   relatively stable airmass located to the north of the front.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 05/20/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   39968492 39528574 39488690 39698741 40158770 40968767
               41378688 41158577 40878483 39968492 

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