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Mesoscale Discussion 804
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0804
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1139 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX HILL COUNTRY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 271639Z - 271745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE
   NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
   POSSIBLE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORM PERSISTENCE AND SEVERE
   COVERAGE...CONFIDENCE IN THE NEED FOR A WW IS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT
   TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

   DISCUSSION...TSTM ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A WWD MOVING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOW DECAYING MCS PUSHING INTO THE WRN
   GULF OF MEXICO. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS PUSHING INTO AN AIRMASS
   CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S TO MID 80S AND
   DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. THESE WARM AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL CONDITIONS
   BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE 12Z DRT RAOB ARE SUPPORTING
   MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J PER KG /PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS/. GIVEN
   THE WEAKNESS IN THE WIND FIELD BETWEEN 800 AND 600 MB NOTED ON THE
   DRT RAOB...A GENERALLY PULSE STORM MODE IS EXPECTED.
   HOWEVER...ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE HAIL AND
   WATER-LOADING WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30749931 30829889 30659803 30169743 29129702 28649774
               28649842 28789961 29350014 30160006 30559966 30749931 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2015
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