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Mesoscale Discussion 805
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0805
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0932 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 040232Z - 040330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLATED SVR HAIL
   RISK FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   DISCUSSION...DESPITE EARLIER CONVECTION AND THE PASSIVE OF A LEAD
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ENVIRONMENT ACROSS SE MT REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S. AS
   SUCH...ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH A MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. 00Z RAP RAOB SUGGESTS THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY
   ELEVATED WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF SVR HAIL. AS A RESULT...THESE
   STORMS MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS DESPITE CINH INDICATED BY
   MESOANALYSIS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH DURING THE
   NEXT HOUR OR TWO FOR SOME SVR HAIL BEFORE DIURNAL
   COOLING/STABILIZATION AND CONTINUE EWD MOTION AWAY FROM BETTER LARGE
   SCALE LIFT ACROSS CNTRL/NE MT RESULTS IN WEAKENING.

   ..MOSIER/HART.. 06/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   46240444 45150521 45020592 45090676 45560694 46530651
               47050654 47220593 47120540 46240444 

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Page last modified: June 04, 2014
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