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Mesoscale Discussion 805
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0805
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1244 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

   Areas affected...Middle/Upper Rio Grande Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 211744Z - 211915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong thunderstorms are expected across the middle-upper
   Rio Grande Valley region.  Large hail is the primary risk, though
   gusty winds may also accompany this activity.

   DISCUSSION...Latest satellite/model data suggest a mid-level
   short-wave trough has migrated across northern Mexico and is
   approaching the middle-upper Rio Grande Valley region.  Over the
   last several hours, numerous thunderstorms have developed over the
   higher terrain of northern Mexico and these storms are gradually
   evolving into a larger complex.  With time an MCS should develop and
   turn southeast along the Rio Grande River Valley such that strong
   storms could bleed across the international border.  This is
   supported by an expected increase in southeasterly LLJ across the
   Rio Grande Valley.  Radar algorithms suggest large hail accompanies
   the strongest activity, primarily west of the border.  However,
   severe threat should increase along the immediate US side as this
   maturing complex of storms turns southeast.  WW may be warranted for
   this activity.

   ..Darrow/Weiss.. 05/21/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   27340058 28690222 30310171 29920024 27729894 27340058 

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Page last modified: May 21, 2017
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