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Mesoscale Discussion 805
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0805
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1151 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN MS INTO FAR WRN AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271651Z - 271745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WET
   MICROBURSTS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...CURRENT MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE AN MCV JUST E OF MLU
   WITH DEEPENING CONVECTION BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
   THE RESIDUAL MCS COLD POOL FROM CLAIBORNE COUNTY MS TO THE WRN SHORE
   OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN SERN LA.  FILTERED SUNSHINE COUPLED WITH
   BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE
   1500-2500 J/KG RANGE.  AND WHILE THE BACKGROUND KINEMATIC
   ENVIRONMENT IS NOT THAT STRONGLY SHEARED...THE FT. POLK VWP DOES
   SUGGEST SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT FLOW AROUND THE
   MCV WHICH MAY PROMOTE SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.  AS SUCH...THE SETUP
   MAY SUPPORT SOME STORM AGGREGATION AND POTENTIAL FORWARD PROPAGATION
   WITH THE PRIMARY RISK BEING DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.

   ..MEAD.. 05/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   31078995 31709025 32739009 33268980 33528925 33548877
               33518839 33418820 32998815 32178821 31658824 31178834
               30648849 30448888 30398929 30578976 31078995 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2015
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