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Mesoscale Discussion 806
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0806
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1222 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN INDIANA/SWRN OH/PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271722Z - 271845Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS
   AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN MCV CROSSING SWRN INDIANA ATTM.  RISK FOR
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
   SO.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN MCV
   MOVING NEWD ACROSS SWRN INDIANA ATTM...WITH WITH A GRADUALLY
   HEATING/DESTABILIZING AIRMASS ALONG AND S OF THE NEWD TRACK OF THIS
   FEATURE.  CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO RE-INTENSIFY ACROSS SRN
   INDIANA/WRN KY...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
   COUPLE OF HOURS.  

   MODELS SUGGEST THAT FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS
   THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES
   SHIFTING AWAY TO THE NE INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC.  IN THE MEAN TIME
   HOWEVER...RISK FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT --
   PARTICULARLY INVOF THE MCV WHERE SOME LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE FLOW
   FIELD ALOFT EXISTS -- TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

   ..GOSS/MEAD.. 05/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   40268459 40098280 39478243 37768373 36658506 36728757
               37988647 40228550 40268459 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2015
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