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Mesoscale Discussion 806
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0806
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0941 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SE NEB...SW IA...NW MO...FAR NE KS

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 210...211...

   VALID 040241Z - 040345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 210...211...CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CONTINUE WITH SEVERAL STORM
   CLUSTERS ACROSS WW 210. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK
   INTO FAR NE KS...AND WW 211 HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...EVIDENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING S/SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WAS
   EVIDENT IN TWX VAD WIND PROFILE WHERE 50 KT WAS NOTED AROUND 1 KFT
   AGL. AS THIS LLJ HAS STRENGTHENED...STORMS NEAR LNK IN SE NEB AND
   SDA IN SW IA HAVE CONTINUED TO TRACK MORE SELY INTO FAVORABLE
   WARM/MOIST AND UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
   PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS THE LLJ CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD
   NE KS/NW MO AND A THREAT FOR TORNADOES /POTENTIALLY STRONG/ WILL
   CONTINUE AS WELL. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS FOR STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO SHIFT
   SEWD ACROSS WW 210. A LOCAL AERIAL EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED ON THE
   SOUTHERN EDGES OF THIS WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF WFO EAX.
   ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD TREND IN STORM
   DEVELOPMENT...NERN PARTS OF KS WILL LIKELY BE IMPACTED AND WW 211
   HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS THREAT. 

   ON THE WESTERN END OF WW 210...STORMS FROM NANCE TO CUSTER COUNTY
   ARE VERY LIKELY ELEVATED. THESE STORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY IN A COOLER/DRIER WORKED-OVER AIRMASS WHERE STRONG
   INHIBITION EXISTS. NONETHELESS...LARGE HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THESE STORMS...BUT THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY BE DECREASING.

   ..LEITMAN.. 06/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41209992 41759824 41199222 39529227 39359556 39579681
               40159908 40669997 41209992 

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Page last modified: June 04, 2014
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