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Mesoscale Discussion 807
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0155 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS...FAR SW NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 271855Z - 272030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS. GIVEN THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
   SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND MAYBE A
   TORNADO...A WATCH IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BLOSSOMING
   CU FIELD ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS WITHIN THE LEE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS
   THE REGION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA
   WITH GLD OBSERVATION GOING FROM 68/57 TO 74/59 DURING THE LAST HOUR.
   CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN YUMA COUNTY WITH THAT
   TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE.
   A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WAS SAMPLED BY DDC AND LBF
   SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING AND MOST RECENT VAD DATA DOES NOT PROVIDE
   ENOUGH DATA TO DETERMINE IF THIS WEAKNESS STILL EXIST. MODEL
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN THE MID-LEVEL WINDS IS EXPECTED
   AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. INCREASED MID-LEVEL WINDS
   WOULD FAVOR SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. A WEAKER MID-LEVEL
   WIND PROFILE WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN CLOSER STORM PROXIMITY AND A
   QUICK TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE. EITHER WAY...THE
   ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND THE SEVERE THREAT AND
   COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO MERIT A WATCH.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39080260 40500305 40980232 40520128 39290039 37250010
               37250206 39080260 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2015
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