MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0816 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...SW OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290...
   
   VALID 130116Z - 130315Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 290
   CONTINUES.
   
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS PERSIST ACROSS WW 290. SEVERAL OF THE CELLS
   HAVE BEEN LEFT MOVING...BUT CONDITIONS MAY BE BECOMING MORE
   FAVORABLE FOR EWD MOVING SUPERCELLS ACROSS NW TX AND SW OK...AS THE
   LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
   THE MAIN THREATS. A SMALL WW MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS NW TX/SW OK.
   
   THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL CIN FOR A SURFACE TEMPERATURE
   COOLER THAN THE MID 80S F. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RELATIVELY COOL
   TEMPERATURES GENERALLY N OF I-40 AND E OF I-44...WHERE STRATUS HAS
   BEEN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE DAY. MUCH STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   EXIST SW OF THIS AREA...WHICH IS WHERE A FEW OF THESE STORMS ARE
   MOVING INTO.
   
   AREA PROFILERS AND VWPS SHOW A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF
   30-40 KT ACROSS WRN OK INTO NW TX. AS STORMS MOVE INTO THIS
   AREA...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL GIVEN STRONG
   INSTABILITY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
   FLOW. RELATIVELY HIGH T/TD SPREADS AND INCREASING CIN SUGGEST THE
   TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LOW...ALTHOUGH VERY STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR.
   
   ..JEWELL.. 05/13/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
   
   LAT...LON   35620086 36050062 36080014 35479990 35199920 34799869
               34449848 33969884 33970080 34020084 35620086