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Mesoscale Discussion 808
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0808
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0435 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southeastern CO...far southwestern
   KS...northeastern NM...and the TX/OK Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 212135Z - 220000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A very isolated large hail and gusty wind threat should
   persist through the early evening. Watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated convective development across southeastern CO
   and northeastern NM is associated with low-level upslope flow and
   modest large-scale ascent attendant to an upper trough over the
   Great Basin. Low-level moisture remains quite limited across this
   region due to a prior frontal passage, but surface dewpoints have
   generally increased into the mid to upper 40s. With modestly steep 
   lapse rates around 7 C/km in the 700-500 mb layer present over this
   area, a narrow axis of weak instability (MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg) has
   developed as of 2130Z. Coupled with 30-40 kt of effective bulk
   shear, this weak instability will be sufficient for some updraft
   organization. A very isolated large hail and strong/gusty wind
   threat should be realized with the strongest cores through the early
   evening hours before the loss of daytime heating reduces
   instability. Given the marginal thermodynamic environment, the
   overall severe threat is expected to remain too isolated to warrant
   watch issuance, even as convective coverage increases over the next
   several hours.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 05/21/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36410114 35300219 34560342 34690474 35330487 36330482
               37020456 37660303 37830207 37720152 37070118 36410114 

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