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Mesoscale Discussion 809
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0809
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0213 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TX/OK PANHANDLES...WRN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 271913Z - 272045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION SHORTLY
   WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
   POSSIBLE. WW WILL BE ISSUED SOON.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF CU DEVELOPING
   FROM JUST W OF PYX SWD TO SW OF PPA IN THE FAR NW TX PANHANDLE. THIS
   CU APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE OF
   A WEAK MOISTURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
   80S...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
   CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH RECENT
   MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE OVER 2500 J PER KG. OVERALL KINEMATIC
   ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   VALUES OVER 40 KT. WITH SUPERCELLS EXPECTED...A WW WILL LIKELY BE
   NEEDED SOON TO COVER THE POTENTIAL SVR THREAT.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37159968 36259929 35049950 34419986 34710119 35450134
               36950109 37159968 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2015
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