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Mesoscale Discussion 810
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0810
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0116 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of southeastern VA and northeastern NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221816Z - 221945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Localized strong/gusty winds may occur with thunderstorms
   over the next hour or two. A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out.
   Due to the marginal overall threat and small spatial/temporal nature
   of the severe risk, watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A MCV that developed from earlier convection is located
   over southeastern VA as of 18Z. A small band of thunderstorms
   associated with the MCV circulation has recently developed across
   part of southeastern VA and northeastern NC. Visible satellite
   imagery shows clearing downstream of this activity, and temperatures
   have generally warmed into the lower 80s, with dewpoints in the
   upper 60s to lower 70s. This moist low-level airmass and diurnal
   heating have contributed to the development of weak instability
   across this region, with MLCAPE up to 500 J/kg, even though
   mid-level lapse rates remain poor. Given the linear nature of this
   small band of convection, locally strong/gusty winds may occur over
   the next hour or two as it moves eastward to the coast and then
   offshore. In addition, a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled
   out with the MCV circulation itself given the veering wind profile
   noted in the AKQ VWP, as well as recent velocity data from the AKQ
   radar. Due to the overall marginal thermodynamic environment and
   small spatial/temporal nature of the  severe risk, watch issuance is
   not expected.

   ..Gleason/Weiss.. 05/22/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35947670 36247686 36947700 37117636 37017587 36587576
               36227564 35977610 35947670 

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