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Mesoscale Discussion 811
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0811
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0309 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...TX BIG COUNTY...TX HILL COUNTRY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 272009Z - 272215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED
   FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TSTMS
   DEVELOPMENT FROM PORTIONS OF THE NW TX SWD INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY.
   NRN ACTIVITY APPEARS TO HAVE INITIATED AS A GRAVITY WAVE MOVED
   THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE SRN ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG OLD
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION. STORMS LINE UP
   WELL WITH THE 70 DEG F ISODROSOTHERM SUGGESTING SOME INFLUENCE BY
   THIS SUBTLE MOISTURE BOUNDARY AS WELL. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THESE
   BOUNDARIES AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OVER 3000 J
   PER KG PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS/...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
   PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME HAIL
   AND DOWNBURST THREAT. HOWEVER...WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL WIND
   FIELDS NOTED IN MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS IN
   RECENT RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL KEEP OVERALL BULK SHEAR LOW WITH A
   MOSTLY PULSE STORM MODE ANTICIPATED. THIS LACK OF STORM ORGANIZATION
   IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT STORM STRENGTH AND LONGEVITY. AS SUCH...A WW IS
   NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33099967 33789916 33999848 33639799 32599802 31229816
               30419859 30539990 32019992 33099967 

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Page last modified: May 27, 2015
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