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Mesoscale Discussion 811
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0811
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0123 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

   Areas affected...Eastern of West TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 221823Z - 222000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern
   NM into parts of west TX this afternoon.  Hail and gusty winds are
   the primary threats.

   DISCUSSION...Early-afternoon water vapor imagery depicts a
   short-wave trough extending from southern CO into east-central AZ,
   digging southeast in line with short-range model guidance. 
   Large-scale forcing for ascent appears to be overspreading eastern
   NM coincident with low cloud dissipation across the southern High
   Plains of NM.  Over the last hour or so, convection has developed
   off the higher terrain and isolated thunderstorms are now slowly
   maturing from Lincoln to San Miguel counties.  With low-level lapse
   rates steepening immediately downstream, environmental shear is more
   than adequate for sustaining this activity as it propagates
   southeast.  Large hail and gusty winds are the primary threats.

   ..Darrow/Weiss.. 05/22/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32030412 33190517 35390522 35230405 32750269 32030412 

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