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Mesoscale Discussion 812
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0812
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0656 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

   Areas affected...Far Eastern New Mexico...West Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255...

   Valid 222356Z - 230200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 255

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will continue with large hail
   and damaging wind gusts possible across parts of eastern New Mexico
   and in west Texas this evening. The wind damage threat may increase
   across the Low Rolling Plains where a Weather Watch may be needed
   depending upon how the scenario unfolds.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows an outflow boundary
   over the southern high Plains extending from near Roswell, New
   Mexico east-southeastward to near Big Spring, Texas and Abilene,
   Texas. Surface dewpoints to the south of the boundary range from the
   mid 50s F in southeast New Mexico to the lower 60s in the Low
   Rolling Plains. This airmass is moderately unstable with the RAP
   estimating MLCAPE values in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This
   combined with large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough
   moving through the southern Plains, will help maintain scattered
   thunderstorm development this evening. Concerning the shear
   environment, the WSR-88D VWP at San Angelo and Lubbock have strong
   deep-layer shear with 0-6 km shear estimated in the 50 to 55 kt
   range. This will support isolated supercell development with a
   potential for large hail. Some short-term model solutions also
   suggest that storms will congeal over west Texas and move
   east-southeastward across the Low Rolling Plains. If this occurs,
   then the formation of a bowing line segment capable of producing
   damaging wind gusts will be possible.

   ..Broyles.. 05/22/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32030412 33190517 35390522 35230405 32750269 32030412 

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