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Mesoscale Discussion 813
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0813
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1111 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN KY AND ADJACENT SRN OHIO INTO WEST
   VIRGINIA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 041611Z - 041815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WHILE NOT YET CERTAIN...DUE TO A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
   ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT MAY EVENTUALLY INCREASE AND ORGANIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO
   REQUIRE A WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH FLUCTUATIONS
   IN INTENSITY...HAS BEEN DEVELOPING EASTWARD...ROUGHLY ALONG A
   LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
   ADJACENT SOUTHERN OHIO.  THIS HAS BEEN AIDED BY MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED
   WITH 30-40 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...TO THE SOUTH OF A REMNANT
   CONVECTIVELY GENERATED CYCLONIC VORTEX MIGRATING THROUGH THE OHIO
   VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHEAR ARE GENERALLY WEAK AHEAD OF THIS
   ACTIVITY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...BUT INSOLATION AND
   MOISTENING BENEATH MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING
   TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO
   DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.  AS INHIBITION GRADUALLY WEAKENS FOR
   BOUNDARY-LAYER BASED PARCELS CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000
   J/KG...FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION IS
   PROBABLE ACROSS NORTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WEST
   VIRGINIA.  

   GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A
   SUFFICIENTLY STRONG COLD POOL COULD EVENTUALLY FORM TO SUPPORT AN
   INCREASING RISK FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS WITH ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS
   ACROSS CHARLESTON AND ADJACENT AREAS OF WEST VIRGINIA DURING THE
   18-20Z TIME FRAME.  WHILE PEAK GUSTS SEEM LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY
   BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA...THEY COULD NEVERTHELESS STILL BE STRONG
   ENOUGH TO DOWN TREES/BRANCHES AND POWER LINES. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...PARTICULARLY WITH EARLY ACTIVITY
   NEAR THE FRONT...BUT THIS THREAT...IN GENERAL...SEEMS FAIRLY LOW.

   ..KERR/CARBIN.. 06/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   39038257 38988133 39048061 39068029 38727986 37778038
               37368143 37518298 38038391 38408409 38738373 39038257 

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Page last modified: June 04, 2014
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