MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0813
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0207 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...W CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 131907Z - 132000Z
   
   THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP OVER WRN PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A WW.
   
   GENERALLY WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE REGIME RESIDES ACROSS THE SERN CONUS
   INTO THE FL PENINSULA...RESULTING IN NEGLIGIBLE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL
   VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...FAVORING UNORGANIZED MULTICELL THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
   IS OCCURRING OVER WRN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL FL
   PENINSULA...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S AND LOW
   90S. THIS HEATING...COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   /SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S/...YIELDS MLCAPE VALUES
   AOA 2000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AIDING IN
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 9.5 C PER KM
   BASED ON MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS/. THE COMBINATION OF LARGE
   INSTABILITY /AND THUS POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION
   LOADING ALOFT/ AND THE WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY RESULT IN AN
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
   STRONGER UPDRAFT CORES.
   
   ..GARNER.. 05/13/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...
   
   LAT...LON   29188282 29548258 29328203 27158104 26278128 26148182
               27498267 29188282