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Mesoscale Discussion 813
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0813
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0850 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

   Areas affected...Northwest and North-central Texas...Southwest

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 230150Z - 230415Z


   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue for a
   couple more hours across southwest Oklahoma and northwest to
   north-central Texas. Isolated large hail and a few strong wind gusts
   will be possible. Although weather watch issuance is not expected,
   the area will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorms with some severe, are located
   from near the Childress, Texas area east-northeastward to the
   vicinity of Lawton, Oklahoma. These storms are located along an
   outflow boundary in which surface dewpoints to the south of the
   boundary range from the upper 50s F in northwest Texas to the lower
   60s F across south-central Oklahoma and north-central Texas. This is
   contributing to weak instability ahead of the boundary. In spite of
   this, the Frederick WSR-88D VWP shows moderate deep-layer shear with
   40 kt of westerly flow in the mid-levels. This combined with 700-500
   mb lapse rates of around 7.5 C/km evident on the Amarillo 00Z
   sounding, should be enough for storm rotation and isolated large
   hail. The latest short-term model guidance suggests that this
   convection will move east-southeastward across northwest Texas and
   southern Oklahoma over the next couple of hours but weaken gradually
   as instability decreases across the region later this evening.

   ..Broyles.. 05/23/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34819793 34559962 34210013 33609990 32469859 32989743
               34059704 34819793 

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