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Mesoscale Discussion 814
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0814
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0505 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM INTO WRN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 272205Z - 280000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TX S PLAINS AS
   WELL AS SERN NM THROUGH EVENING...WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED WIND
   DAMAGE POSSIBLE. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOWARD THE TX
   PANHANDLE.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING FROM PVW NEWD ACROSS THE
   TX PANHANDLE WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES EXIST AS WELL AS AN ELY
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE HELPING TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT. HEIGHT
   TENDENCIES ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL BUT MODEST WLY FLOW ATOP SLY
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE
   FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

   THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE FROM LBB NEWD...BUT
   OTHER CELLS ARE EXPECTED FORM THIS EVENING OVER SERN NM...OR DEVELOP
   NEWD FROM THE CURRENT ACTIVITY NEAR PEQ. IF IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT
   COVERAGE OF SEVERE WILL BE MORE THAN ISOLATED...A WATCH MAY BE
   NEEDED. AN INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO FAVOR EVENING
   STRONG STORMS.

   ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 05/27/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   32570396 34120352 34610310 34810183 34730050 34250026
               32940079 32280142 31910198 31550286 31560346 31820382
               32570396 

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