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Mesoscale Discussion 814
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0814
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN MO...SRN IL...SRN IN...WRN AND CNTRL
   KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 041720Z - 041915Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONE OR MORE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED
   ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...PERHAPS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
   TWO.  SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING TIMING OF THE MORE
   SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.  THIS SEEMS MOST
   LIKELY CLOSER TO THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME...BUT COULD OCCUR EARLIER.

   DISCUSSION...TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY
   REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR.  IN THE WAKE OF A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVELY
   GENERATED OR ENHANCED PERTURBATIONS...LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
   STILL SUGGESTS INHIBITION FOR MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS AHEAD OF
   A SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING FRONT...FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
   AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY...IS CONSIDERABLE. 
   HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALREADY
   APPEARS EVIDENT ALONG THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT.

   INTO AND THROUGH THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME...FURTHER INSOLATION...
   BENEATH A CONTINUING INFLUX OF VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR
   FROM THE PLAINS...LIKELY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER
   CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  BENEATH
   40-50 KT WEST NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW ON THE NORTHEASTERN
   PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
   ERODING WITH AT LEAST WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE TO DISCRETE
   SUPERCELL STORMS INITIALLY.  UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH TO ONE OR
   MORE ORGANIZED AND CONSOLIDATING STORM CLUSTERS PROBABLY WILL BE
   FAIRLY RAPID...HOWEVER...WITH LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

   ..KERR/CARBIN.. 06/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38538996 39028792 38828694 38618553 38448471 38258416
               37178510 36628714 36778880 38029151 38538996 

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Page last modified: June 04, 2014
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