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Mesoscale Discussion 814
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0814
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0838 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

   Areas affected...Southeast AL/FL Panhandle into southern GA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231338Z - 231545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for isolated supercells and other
   potentially severe thunderstorms should gradually increase across
   southeast AL and the nearby FL Panhandle into southern GA this
   morning. This includes a tornado risk aside from damaging winds and
   possibly hail. Developmental trends are being monitored for a
   possible watch.

   DISCUSSION...On the southern fringe of early-day storms, latest
   (13Z) surface analysis feature a weak surface low extending along
   the southern AL and FL Panhandle border vicinity, with with a very
   moist air mass (lower 70s F surface dewpoints) extending across
   southeast AL, FL Panhandle into southern GA. Latest WSR-88D VWP data
   from the likes of KEOX Fort Rucker AL reflects a wind profile that
   is conducive for supercells, accentuated by 45 kt of 0-6 km shear
   and 200+ 0-1 km SRH. Given additional destabilization and
   expectations of steadily strengthening low/mid-level winds across
   the region during the day, it appears that the potential for
   supercells will gradually increase this morning. Accordingly, the
   potential will exist for a tornado or two aside from damaging winds
   and some hail.

   ..Guyer/Kerr.. 05/23/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30638682 31378645 32418354 31358278 30598334 30358445
               30248579 30638682 

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