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Mesoscale Discussion 815
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0815
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1254 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF S CNTRL/SE MO INTO NERN AR AND WRN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 041754Z - 042000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 18-21Z
   REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR...BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE
   POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAT COULD
   REQUIRE A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AND SOUTHEAST OF
   THE WEST PLAINS MO AREA APPEARS MOSTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE...ROOTED
   WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOWER TO MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
   ADVECTION...ON THE NOSE OF VERY WARM...AND MORE STRONGLY
   CAPPING...ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS.  THE
   PERSISTENCE OF THIS FORCING REMAINS UNCLEAR...BUT WITHIN STRONGLY
   SHEARED WEST NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW...ACTIVITY IS
   TENDING TO SPREAD TOWARD AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY AT LEAST
   SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER MID-LEVEL INHIBITION.  AND IT DOES NOT
   APPEAR ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ACTIVITY COULD EVENTUALLY
   BECOME ROOTED IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS LOWER PORTIONS OF
   THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  IF THIS OCCURS...CAPE FOR THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS ACROSS THIS REGION IS BECOMING LARGE...AND
   SUPPORTIVE OF RAPID CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION.  SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN ORGANIZATION CONVECTIVE
   CLUSTER WOULD THEN BE POSSIBLE...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
   SEVERE HAIL/WIND GUSTS.

   ..KERR/CARBIN.. 06/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37819152 37449011 36248902 35188935 34909082 34969167
               36609260 37819152 

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Page last modified: June 04, 2014
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