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Mesoscale Discussion 816
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0816
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MT...NERN WY...WRN SD...FAR SWRN ND...FAR
   NWRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 041858Z - 042030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL WW OVER THE NEXT
   1-2 HOURS AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EASTWARD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN INTO AN
   ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT FOR
   LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.

   DISCUSSION...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN MT AND ERN ID HAS
   CONTRIBUTED TO EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER SOUTH
   CENTRAL MT SWWRD INTO WY.  A CHANNEL OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS
   EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS EWD OVER THE THREAT AREA...WITH
   RIW VWP 6KM WINDS OF 40KTS AT 1800UTC.  EXISTING STORMS WILL
   PROGRESS EWD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF
   1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 35-45KT IN 1800 UTC SPC
   MESOANALYSIS FIELDS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS WITH LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  HAIL SIZE GUIDANCE BASED ON SHORT TERM RAP
   POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL FROM 1 TO
   2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. HIGH PLAINS LOW RH SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL ALSO
   SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND THREAT.  THE TORNADO THREAT IS RELATIVELY
   LOW...WITH WEAK 0-1KM SHEAR AND HIGH LCLS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH STRONGER SUPERCELL STORMS.

   ..SCHNEIDER/CARBIN.. 06/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...RIW...

   LAT...LON   46020698 46560654 46710489 46640286 45830230 44760216
               43740226 42600236 42330329 42570474 42790582 44360667
               45110697 46020698 

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Page last modified: June 04, 2014
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