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Mesoscale Discussion 817
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0817
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0347 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 042047Z - 042245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNDERWAY...BUT MORE RAPID
   INTENSIFICATION STILL SEEMS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS AWAY.  TRENDS
   ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THAT
   COULD REQUIRE A WATCH TOWARD 22-23Z.

   DISCUSSION...SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION IS NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
   MISSOURI OZARKS.  THIS IS OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A SOUTHWARD
   ADVANCING COLD FRONT...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUING BROAD
   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.  RATHER WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR
   STILL APPEARS TO BE ACTING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT
   WITHIN A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN INHIBITION /REFLECTED IN 700 MB
   THERMAL FIELDS/...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER
   HEATING AND MIXING WILL EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO STORM INITIATION
   TOWARD THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME.  IF/WHEN THIS OCCURS...AN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE CAPE WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR BENEATH 40-50 KT WEST NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB
   FLOW...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...BEFORE CONVECTION
   ATTEMPTS TO CONSOLIDATE AND GROW UPSCALE.

   ..KERR/CARBIN.. 06/04/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37629429 38289298 37759119 36649182 36699384 37629429 

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Page last modified: June 04, 2014
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