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Mesoscale Discussion 818
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0818
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN OK/WESTERN-NORTH TX AND
   NORTH TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 280750Z - 281015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL CANNOT
   BE RULED OUT AS AN MCS ADVANCES EWD ACROSS SWRN OK AND WRN NORTH TX
   INTO THE EARLY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS TO
   REACH PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN OK AND NRN TX BETWEEN 10-12Z.  WW
   ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...THOUGH TRENDS IN FORWARD SPEED
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS...CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE EAST ACROSS WRN OK
   AND WRN NORTH TX...WITH THE LEADING PORTION OF THE MORE ORGANIZED
   LINE EXTENDING FROM SWRN WASHITA COUNTY OK TO COTTLE COUNTY TX.  
   GIVEN THE RECENT LIFESPAN AND EVOLUTION OF THIS MCS...THERE IS A
   HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR THERE TO BE AN EMBEDDED MCV WITH RADAR IMAGERY
   SUGGESTING THIS FEATURE IS LOCATED OVER BORDER REGION OF THE SERN TX
   PANHANDLE AND SWRN OK.  SURFACE ANALYSES AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
   INDICATED A WARM FRONT AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDED GENERALLY
   W-E IN VICINITY OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH MODERATELY STRONG
   MUCAPE EXTENDING FROM TX INTO WRN AND CENTRAL OK.  A 35-40 KT SLY
   LLJ IS MAINTAINING AN INFLUX OF THIS INSTABILITY INTO THE SWRN-SRN
   EXTENT OF THE MCS.  THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT
   UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH 12Z WITH THE APPROACH
   OF A PROGRESSIVE SWRN STATES TROUGH SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
   INTO THE EARLY MORNING AS THIS MCS ADVANCES EWD.

   THE MOST RECENT RUNS /04-06Z/ OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS MCS AND
   ATTENDANT LEADING LINE OF STORMS WILL PERSIST EWD ACROSS SWRN OK AND
   WRN NORTH TX INTO THE EARLY MORNING...WITH THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTED
   BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS/
   KINEMATICS.  THE EWD MOVEMENT OF THE LEADING LINE OF STORMS AT 30-35
   KT SUGGESTS LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...AND IF THE
   FORWARD SPEED SHOWS AN INCREASE CLOSER TO 40 KT...THEN A WW MAY NEED
   TO BE CONSIDERED.  OTHERWISE...LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH COLD POOL ENHANCEMENTS ALONG THE LINE OF
   STORMS.

   ..PETERS/HART.. 05/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...LUB...

   LAT...LON   33940033 34329963 34719934 35239930 35189841 35069734
               34869658 34349638 33619664 33489694 33469727 33439786
               33619899 33769990 33940033 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2015
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