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Mesoscale Discussion 819
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0819
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0658 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

   Areas affected...South-central Texas...Lower to Middle Texas Coast

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259...

   Valid 232358Z - 240200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue from south-central
   Texas to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Large hail and wind damage
   should be the primary threats. WW 259 may need to be extended to the
   coast once the storms approach the southeastern edge of the watch.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front
   extending west to east across south-central Texas extending
   east-northeastward into southeast Texas. Thunderstorms are ongoing
   in the post-frontal airmass about 40 statute miles south of San
   Antonio extending northeastward into areas just to the west of
   Houston. Surface dewpoints along this corridor are in the lower to
   mid 60s F with the RAP estimating MLCAPE from around 2500 J/kg in
   south-central Texas to near 1000 J/kg in the Victoria/Houston area.
   Regional WSR-88D VWPs at Corpus Christi and Houston show 0-6 km
   shear in the 50 to 55 kt range. This combined with steep mid-level
   lapse rates should support storm rotation within the stronger
   updrafts with a potential for isolated large hail. Wind damage will
   also be possible rotating storms and with the faster moving
   multicell line segments.

   ..Broyles.. 05/23/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   28389626 27819693 27229753 27489859 27829908 28549914
               29659698 30029594 28879533 28389626 

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