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Mesoscale Discussion 820
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0820
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0712 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

   Areas affected...Northwest GA...East-central AL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 240012Z - 240145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across
   northwest GA and central/east-central AL for the next few hours.
   Limited and marginal nature of the anticipated severe threat is
   expected to preclude watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown more
   eastward/southeastward motion within the cluster of storms southwest
   of RMG (in far northwest GA). This is likely a result of both
   increased linear forcing associated with the approaching surface
   trough and more cold pool amalgamation. Additionally, the more
   cellular thunderstorm activity across central AL has also shown an
   increase in strength. Downstream airmass is not particularly warm or
   unstable but modest low-level moisture and cool mid-level
   temperatures still support limited instability (MLCAPE around 1000 J
   per kg based on recent mesoanalysis). Current expectation is for the
   ongoing line to continue southeastward while the cells across
   central AL trend more linear, ultimately resulting in a more
   expansive line of storms. 

   The severe threat associated with the resulting line appears to be
   marginal due to the generally limited instability and the lines
   displacement to the west of the better low-level flow. Even so, some
   isolated damaging wind gusts and hail as possible across portions of
   northwest GA and east-central/central AL for the next few hours.
   Anticipated marginal severe threat is expected to preclude the need
   for a watch, although convective trends across the region will be
   monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Hart.. 05/24/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

   LAT...LON   33368437 32928514 32598627 32648715 33588585 34408517
               34598485 34558440 34498413 34038400 33648410 33368437 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2017
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