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Mesoscale Discussion 0820
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0712 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017
Areas affected...Northwest GA...East-central AL
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 240012Z - 240145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated hail and damaging wind gusts are possible across
northwest GA and central/east-central AL for the next few hours.
Limited and marginal nature of the anticipated severe threat is
expected to preclude watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery has shown more
eastward/southeastward motion within the cluster of storms southwest
of RMG (in far northwest GA). This is likely a result of both
increased linear forcing associated with the approaching surface
trough and more cold pool amalgamation. Additionally, the more
cellular thunderstorm activity across central AL has also shown an
increase in strength. Downstream airmass is not particularly warm or
unstable but modest low-level moisture and cool mid-level
temperatures still support limited instability (MLCAPE around 1000 J
per kg based on recent mesoanalysis). Current expectation is for the
ongoing line to continue southeastward while the cells across
central AL trend more linear, ultimately resulting in a more
expansive line of storms.
The severe threat associated with the resulting line appears to be
marginal due to the generally limited instability and the lines
displacement to the west of the better low-level flow. Even so, some
isolated damaging wind gusts and hail as possible across portions of
northwest GA and east-central/central AL for the next few hours.
Anticipated marginal severe threat is expected to preclude the need
for a watch, although convective trends across the region will be
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 33368437 32928514 32598627 32648715 33588585 34408517
34598485 34558440 34498413 34038400 33648410 33368437
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