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Mesoscale Discussion 820
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1030 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ME...NH...PORTIONS OF VT...MA...CT...SERN NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 281530Z - 281630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY AHEAD
   OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THE

   STRONGEST STORMS.  ONE OR TWO WATCHES ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 16Z.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING
   IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SWD THROUGH
   ERN PORTIONS OF NY/PA. SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S/NEAR 80

   AND DEW POINTS RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S OVER ME TO THE UPPER 60S
   OVER SERN NY. LATEST RAP-BASED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS ONLY A
   MODEST AMOUNT OF ADDITIONAL HEATING IS REQUIRED FOR TSTM INITIATION
   IN THE VCTY OF THE SFC TROUGH. IN FACT...THE LATEST VIS IMAGERY
   DEPICTS AN INCREASING CU FIELD ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MD AREA.
   EXPECT TSTMS TO DEVELOP/INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
   IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 40 TO 50 KTS OF SWLY EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR AND MODERATE MLCAPE /AVERAGING 1000 TO 1500
   J/KG...LOCALLY HIGHER/. AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W
   PROVIDING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...BOTH SUPERCELLS AND
   BOWING SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS
   THE PRIMARY THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE
   MOST INTENSE UPDRAFTS.

   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND ONE OR TWO WW ISSUANCES WILL
   LIKELY BE NEEDED PRIOR TO 16Z.

   ..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   47196889 47196821 46696799 45946787 45706790 45406752
               45006760 44586797 44286898 43826984 43587025 42537090
               41957190 41327279 40897417 41227475 41457491 42007493
               44357260 45007143 45287074 45987011 47166944 47196889 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2015
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