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Mesoscale Discussion 821
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0821
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1037 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AR...FAR ERN OK

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 281537Z - 281630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY A
   MCS MOVING INTO WRN AR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. A WW IS NOT
   CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION
   ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG-LIVED MCS HAS INTENSIFIED ACROSS SERN/E-CNTRL
   OK...WITH STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS LIKELY ACCOMPANYING PARTS
   OF THE LINE. A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE DOWNSHEAR FROM
   THE MCS...BUT VWP DATA FROM LIT SUGGESTS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS
   WITH EWD EXTENT INTO CNTRL AR. THE THREAT FOR SVR WINDS IS NOT
   EXPECTED TO EXTEND TOO FAR EAST INTO AR...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY
   PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

   ..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   35609365 34549347 33769384 33679447 33899502 34449502
               35249505 35729484 35899392 35609365 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2015
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