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Mesoscale Discussion 822
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0822
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...TX SOUTH PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN...NORTHWEST
   TX...FAR SERN NM

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 281645Z - 281815Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL....DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND A
   COUPLE TORNADOES WILL INCREASE FROM SERN NM EWD ACROSS THE TX S
   PLAINS INTO W-CNTRL TX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
   ISSUED BEFORE 18Z.

   DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED GENERALLY NORTH AND
   WEST OF LUBBOCK THIS MORNING...WITH A SEPARATE WEAKER AREA OF
   CONVECTION NEAR MIDLAND. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
   A LOBE OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE
   TX/OK PANHANDLES. A COMPLEX SFC PATTERN IS IN PLACE AS A RESULT OF
   EARLIER/ONGOING CONVECTION...FEATURING A DIFFUSE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ANALYZED NEAR I-20...AND A MORE RECENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SWD
   FROM THE SWRN TX PANHANDLE TO S OF SPS. 

   VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /SAMPLED IN 12Z MAF SOUNDING/
   COMBINED WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE YIELDING WIDESPREAD MLCAPE
   VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG...BUT WEAK CAPPING IS STILL LIKELY IN
   PLACE...WITH CONVECTION REMAINING ELEVATED UNTIL TEMPERATURES REACH
   THE UPPER-70S F. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
   THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND COULD INCLUDE A FEW SUPERCELLS
   WITH A LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND THREAT. ACCOMPANYING TORNADO
   POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE GREATEST ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES AS CONVECTION BECOMES SFC-BASED. A WW WILL PROBABLY BE
   ISSUED BEFORE 18Z.

   ..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   32129951 33789927 34009925 34230053 33900180 33490415
               32570481 31800456 31650292 31810183 31950051 32129951 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2015
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