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Mesoscale Discussion 823
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0823
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0909 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 221...

   VALID 050209Z - 050345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 221
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE TSTM THREAT CONTINUES IN AND NEAR WW 221.
   DOWNSTREAM WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS CNTRL SD/N-CNTRL NEB IS UNLIKELY
   GIVEN WEAKENING TREND IN THIS AREA. UPSCALE GROWTH REMAINS POSSIBLE
   ACROSS NERN CO WHERE A SUBSTANTIAL WIND-PRODUCING MCS MAY EVOLVE
   LATER THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED INTO A PAIR OF BOWING SEGMENTS
   ACROSS WRN SD INTO THE NRN NEB PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. INCREASING
   CINH AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS HAS LED TO A RECENT DECREASE IN
   INTENSITY AND THE LONGEVITY OF THESE SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
   RELATIVELY LIMITED...MAKING THE NEED FOR EVENTUAL WATCH ISSUANCE
   UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE
   NEXT 1-2 HRS DOWNSTREAM OF THE NRN PART OF WATCH 221. 

   FURTHER SOUTH INTO NERN CO...DISCRETE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO
   CONTINUE...WITH A RECENT UPTICK IN INTENSITY NOTED NW OF LIC. WHILE
   ANY DISCRETE CELLS MAY BEGIN TO STRUGGLE WITH INCREASING SBCINH IN
   THE SHORT TERM...ANYTHING THAT REMAINS OF ONGOING CONVECTION LATER
   THIS EVENING...COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL ELEVATED STORM INITIATION AS
   WAA INCREASES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET...MAY EVENTUALLY
   CONGEAL INTO A SEWD-MOVING MCS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
   INTO WRN KS. 

   MUCH OF THE NEB PANHANDLE HAS REMAINED MOSTLY FREE OF
   CONVECTION...BUT STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE IN THE LAST HOUR W OF
   AIA/BFF. A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY REMAINS FOR INTENSE STORMS FOR 1-2
   HOURS THIS EVENING IN THIS AREA BEFORE SBCINH WILL BEGIN SUPPRESSING
   SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.

   ..DEAN.. 06/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39280390 39320427 39780447 40570471 41200464 42010391
               42650320 43090251 43610208 44410219 44900232 45050201
               45180173 45230144 45240118 45310108 45230074 45010059
               44620041 44010047 42770050 41000045 39850042 39180042
               39040097 38950164 39140284 39330362 39280390 

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Page last modified: June 05, 2014
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