Mesoscale Discussion 0823
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017
Areas affected...Much of central and northern Florida
Valid 241030Z - 241230Z
SUMMARY...Much of northern and central Florida will be upgraded to
an Enhanced Risk at 13Z for potentially widespread damaging winds
and a few tornadoes.
DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are already increasing along a weak
boundary across northern Florida, where low-level shear is a bit
stronger. As the upper trough approaches, wind fields will increase
markedly during the day, becoming more favorable for both wind
damage and tornadoes, conditional on storm mode. A very moist and
unstable air mass is already in place, and little heating will be
necessary. Given lack of any CIN or cap, storms may form anywhere
across the warm sector during the day, however, the main foci will
be the aforementioned boundary over northern Florida, and with
strong storms moving in off the Gulf of Mexico.
In the short term, a tornado watch may be needed soon for parts of
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 30108448 30408410 30658211 30728154 30658133 29848118
29098074 28488034 28088033 26798237 27768297 28398277
28868277 29558360 29788428 30108448