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Mesoscale Discussion 823
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0823
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0139 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...WRN KS...SWRN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 281839Z - 282045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MOVE EAST WITH A RISK
   FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 20Z.

   DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF MORNING CLOUD COVER...SUBSTANTIAL
   CLEARING/WARMING HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AND
   RESULTED IN NOTABLE DESTABILIZATION WHEN COMBINED WITH UPPER
   50S/LOWER 60S DEW POINTS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. A SFC TROUGH
   EXTENDED FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE SWD ACROSS ERN CO...AND VIS IMAGERY
   REVEALS SOME CU/CB DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NEB PANHANDLE AND ERN CO.
   MESOANALYSIS AT 18Z REVEALS A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE AVERAGING 1000 J/KG
   OVER SWRN NEB TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OVER SERN CO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
   SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SEWD OVER ERN ID/WRN WY...WITH A
   LEAD IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CO ATTM PROVIDING LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT. MODESTLY STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT
   IN 30-40 KTS OF WLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA AND SUPPORT A
   MIX OF STORM MODES INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WITH A TRANSITION TO
   LINEAR MODE LIKELY WITH TIME. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS ALSO LIKELY. WHILE THE OVERALL TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE
   TEMPERED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS...AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL WILL
   EXIST WITH ROTATING STORMS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SFC TROUGH.

   AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ALONG/E OF THE FRONT
   RANGE...AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE SFC TROUGH/CONFLUENCE LINE OVER
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A WW IS PSBL.

   ..BUNTING/GOSS.. 05/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   37040198 37390360 39670385 40290383 41010348 41550288
               41890159 41820091 41140045 39720037 37720065 37040198 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2015
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