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Mesoscale Discussion 824
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0824
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0204 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTH AND CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 281904Z - 282000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A
   BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH AND CNTRL TX
   THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS SOUTH AND CNTRL TX /GENERALLY E
   OF THE HILL COUNTRY/ HAVE GRADUALLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 1-2
   HRS WITHIN A PLUME OF RICH GULF MOISTURE. THIS AREA IS SITUATED
   ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF EML PLUME SITUATED OVER WRN/CNTRL PARTS OF
   TX...AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE
   VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
   SUPPORTIVE FOR PULSE TO BRIEFLY MULTICELL CONVECTIVE MODES...WITH
   THE PRIMARY THREAT LIKELY BEING STRONG TO LOCALLY/MARGINALLY SVR
   WIND GUSTS. LOW LCL HEIGHTS AND MODERATE DIRECTIONAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
   WITH S-SELY SFC WINDS TURNING TO SLY ABOVE 1 KM COULD ALSO SUPPORT A
   BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO. BOTH OF THESE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
   MARGINAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

   ..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...

   LAT...LON   31879645 29989593 28239759 27729850 28279904 30819821
               31959766 32239699 31879645 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2015
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