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Mesoscale Discussion 825
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0825
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0729 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

   Areas affected...Much of southern Georgia into southern South

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241229Z - 241500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected to develop over a large area
   by midday, with hail, wind, and isolated tornadoes possible.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a very moist air mass with
   dewpoints above 70 f across southern GA and SC. Visible satellite
   imagery also shows pockets of heating are likely to develop which
   will contribute to destabilization and storm formation with little
   if any convective inhibition present. As the upper trough swings
   eastward, deep-layer effective shear will continue to increase to
   over 50-60 kt atop this unstable air mass, and will support severe
   storms. Storms may develop both along a developing cold front and
   also across the open warm sector where warm advection will occur
   with a strong southwesterly low-level jet. The latter scenario may
   favor tornadoes, as low-level shear will be maximized over southeast
   GA and southern SC through early afternoon. Damaging winds and hail
   would appear more likely ahead of the vort max across northern GA
   into the western Carolinas.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/24/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30638163 30898453 31218486 31488497 31998469 33378372
               34098241 34068102 33718039 33548006 33027983 32507999
               31558110 31008135 30638163 

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