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Mesoscale Discussion 825
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0825
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0208 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ME...NH...PORTIONS OF VT...MA...CT...RI...SERN
   NY...NJ

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233...

   VALID 281908Z - 282045Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR VALID PORTIONS OF
   WATCH 233.

   DISCUSSION...SCTD STG/SVR TSTMS...OCNLY IN SHORT LINES...CONTINUE IN
   ADVANCE OF SFC COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA.
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS REVEALS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK/MODERATE
   BUOYANCY...WITH GREATEST MLCAPE /LOCALLY 1500 J/KG/ OVER SRN
   PORTIONS OF WW AREA. THE 16Z GYX SPECIAL RAOB RELEASE SAMPLED 40 KTS
   OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AND THIS IS LIKELY REFLECTIVE OF CONDITIONS
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE WW AREA. EXPECT ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD SVR TSTMS TO
   PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS STORMS MOVE THOUGH THE INSTABILITY
   AXIS. COVERAGE WILL LIKELY REMAIN GREATER OVER NRN PORTIONS WHERE
   STRONGER LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PRESENT IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

   ..BUNTING.. 05/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...

   LAT...LON   46287005 47086892 47106826 46776796 45666794 45116762
               44356849 43617000 42677089 41947154 41167254 40697390
               40737478 40877492 42817333 44527153 46287005 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2015
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