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Mesoscale Discussion 825
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0825
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1150 PM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...WRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 221...

   VALID 050450Z - 050615Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 221
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE SOON DOWNSTREAM OF INTENSE
   SUPERCELL COMPLEX. A NEAR-TERM TORNADO/HAIL THREAT EXISTS...WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH AND AN INCREASING DAMAGING
   WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT.

   DISCUSSION...INTENSE SUPERCELL RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH LIMON CO WITH
   LARGE HAIL AND A REPORTED TORNADO. WITH THIS SUPERCELL COMPLEX
   APPROACHING THE EDGE OF WW 221 IN ABOUT AN HOUR...DOWNSTREAM WATCH
   ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED. WHILE SBCINH IS INCREASING OVER THE
   AREA...MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY AND VERY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES
   /AS NOTED IN THE PUX VWP/ WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE SUPERCELL COMPLEX IN
   THE SHORT TERM AS IT MOVES DOWN THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. VERY LARGE
   HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE. 

   LATER THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY AN
   INCREASING LLJ MAY RESULT IN UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SEWD MOVING MCS
   THAT WOULD AFFECT FAR ERN CO INTO WRN KS...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
   OF DAMAGING WIND.

   ..DEAN.. 06/05/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39140439 39560407 39720335 39760238 39650183 39450134
               39130072 38830050 38580050 38160098 37940139 37910206
               38090321 38400401 38610424 39140439 

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Page last modified: June 05, 2014
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