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Mesoscale Discussion 826
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0826
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0235 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 281935Z - 282030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN ND AND
   NWRN MN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SERN ND ALONG A
   WEAK PRE-FRONTAL SFC WIND SHIFT...AND ACCOMPANYING A WEAK UPPER
   IMPULSE. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ALSO CO-LOCATED WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS...WHERE MLCAPE
   VALUES ARE LIKELY EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   IS POSSIBLE INTO NWRN MN...WHERE TOWERING CU WAS OBSERVED MORE
   RECENTLY ON VIS IMAGERY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 20-25 KT WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE FOR PRIMARILY MULTICELL MODE CONVECTION...AND AN
   ACCOMPANYING RISK FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND. HOWEVER...THESE
   THREATS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REQUIRE WW
   ISSUANCE.

   ..ROGERS/GOSS.. 05/28/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48629393 47509534 46429699 46129852 46309938 47079916
               49019713 49009521 49429520 49389483 48799459 48629393 

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Page last modified: May 28, 2015
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