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Mesoscale Discussion 826
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0826
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0926 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

   Areas affected...extreme southern GA into northern FL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 261...

   Valid 241426Z - 241600Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 261 continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong, locally damaging winds and tornadoes will be
   possible into the afternoon hours across far southern GA into
   northern FL.

   DISCUSSION...The tornado threat will continue across WW 261.
   Regional 88-D VAD wind profiles continue to indicate favorable shear
   environment for low-level rotation with effective SRH values near
   200 m2/s2. Most recently, a cell over Putnam and St. Johns counties
   in northeast FL has shown strong rotation at times. A larger mass of
   thunderstorms further west moving into far southern GA and onshore
   the northwestern FL coast may pose more of a damaging wind threat
   given messier convective mode. Regardless, environmental parameters
   will remain favorable for strong winds and tornadoes into the
   afternoon hours. A southward extension of the watch into central FL
   may be needed in the short term as storms approach the western FL
   coast near the watch expiration time of 19z. However, a new watch
   may be needed this afternoon across parts of central FL.

   Across the eastern FL Peninsula, a low-end threat will continue for
   a few more hours as the surface cold front remains to the west of
   the area. Cells moving into this area have shown some signs of
   intensifying over the last 30 minutes, so have no suggested
   clearance of counties across this area just yet.  A very moist
   boundary layer remains in place despite earlier convection and a
   short-term severe threat will persist across this area.

   ..Leitman.. 05/24/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31138542 30298082 28368070 28068380 28868592 29648645
               30428616 31138542 

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Page last modified: May 24, 2017
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